Morning Brew March 14 2025

Good morning,

It will be interesting to see when the Americans tire of winning:

The Hang Seng is up 17% this year, the Dax 14%, SMI 10% Bitcoin -12%, Dow -3.6%, Nasdaq100 -7.8% and the S&P 500 -5.6% . Tesla -32, Apple -13%, Meta -18% and Nvidia -14.6%.

Nasdaq and S&P are now officially in correction territory, the S&P reached -10.1% from the high yesterday.

Driver remains uncertainty on trade, growth and uncertainty on policy while positive news fail to break through investor sentiment. “History shows periods of heightened policy uncertainty are often associated with weak economic growth. For example, President Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal reforms of the 1930s ultimately failed because his economic policies discouraged companies from making new investments. Trump is making the same mistake, writes Edward Chancellor

In the latest developments

• Donald Trump threatens 200% tariff on EU wine and alcoholic beverages in response to the EU's new 50% tariffs on US whiskey
• Risks around a govt shutdown falling could boost sentiment a bit
• There is movement in ceasefire talks for Ukraine, Putin seems to agree in general but demands certain preconditions.
• Tesla is looking to introduce a model y at 20% lower cost to boost sales,

EU and US yields are stable at 2.85 and 4.29%, the USD Index rose to 103.95 as EURUSD Failes to hold above the 1.09 and falls to 1.0845.

Gold and Silver had an amazingly strong day yesterday and gold is within hairs breadth of the massively important 3000, the overnight high was 2993.80. Silver is trading at 33.80.  Expect a lot of interest in precious metals today – FOMO or disappointment. In key weeks there are often wild swings into the late afternoon in Gold and Silver.

Today I would expect politics to remain in the driver seat, as top tier releases are missing from the agenda, news on the tariff front, the ceasefire talks, the US Debt Ceiling and the German negotiations about the debt ceiling are likely to be key

Next week we will remain at the 5 hour difference between the US and CET.

Central Bank decisions will dominate the markets next week, we are expecting decisions out of the US, the UK; Switzerland, Sweden and Brasil.

Friday, March 14, 2025

• DE HICP
• UK GDP
• U.S.: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prelim (Mar).

  Monday , March 17, 2025

• China Retail Sales,
• US Retail Sales