Senior Relationship Manager
Good Morning,
Today at 13:30 we will find out how deep the fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place. The banking crisis calls for lower rates while inflation demands higher ones.
Lower yields and the traded rate patch show a clear expectation of lower rates – the necessity of which weighs on equities and banks in particular.
2 Year US Yields are now trading at 4.03%, more than a full percent below last week, the probability of no rate hike next week is now 50% with the other 50% for a hike by 25 bps and the peak rate this year is seen at 4.73 and the year end is seen at 3.92%.
The great winners yesterday were Gold (1910) Silver (21.90) and Bitcoin (24500) and CHF (find a collection of Charts here) while Banks were the big losers.
US Stocks held up decently yesterday while the GER40 and other global Indexes came under pressure. The Dow closed down 0.28%, S&P 500 down 0.15%, Nasdaq up 0.45% The S&P Banking Index fell 7% the largest drop since 2020.
In the driver seat from here will be the CPI, government and central bank comments and any news of stress in the banking system or the lack thereof.
The CPI is expected at 6% annually and 0.4% monthly with the core at 5.5% and 0.4%.
Consider options for any speculative positions to limit losses as volatility can be expected to be very high and sharp moves may lead to unwanted risks.
A new fragmented world order can render some of today's infrastructure obselete, but it also calls for massive new investments across the globe, which requires a new set of strategic and tactical investment strategies.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
As globalisation turns to fragmentation, China seems set on playing a role in the global economy, while simultaneously working towards proofing its own economic situation from external shocks and crises.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
The recent bank runs and ensuing challenges are reminicent of something we've seen before. Will it end like the S&L crises of 1986 and 1995?
Chris Dembik,
Head of Macroeconomic Research
Equity markets need to recalibrate to another - fragmented - global world. What's your view on equities in this market - are they going up or down?
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
With every development comes new opportunites, some of which could be in India. Have you considered the country as a part of your diversification strategy?
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
A collar is an option strategy that allows some protection while maintaining some upside potential. What investment would you like to use a collar strategy for?
Hans Oudshoorn,
Trainer Academy
There are arguments to be made for many commodities to have upside. Which are you paying the most attention to this quarter?
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
In a very challenging macro environment, which currencies do you think will come out on top?
John J. Hardy,
Head of FX Strategy