Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Key day - Watch US Data at 14:30CET to make or break the week
Good Morning,
Today is starting to look like a crucial day for traders. As our Steen Jacobsen points out, it is uncommon that there is a very strong market move ahead of key data and yesterday was certainly an outlier:
Yesterday, the US Bank index fell 6.6% on issues at SVB. The Bank announced a share sale to boost it`s balance sheet after suffering heavy losses in a bond portfolio. and the group lost 60? of value. This dragged indexes lower overall and the Dow fell 1.85%, the S&P 1.66%, and the Nasdaq 2.05%. Shares of crypto-focused companies fell as well after Silvergate Capital Corp announced to wind down operations. Bitcoin fell below 20 again.
The Dow broke support at 32.550… and with RSI below 40 indicating a short position is confirmed.The US500 has broken the 200d MA to the downside and it will be key to see where we end the week. The Swiss SMI broke below support as outlined here. 10,659 is key support ahead of the 10.000 level.
Our Peter Garnry put out an interesting article on Tesla and the heat pump market, nevertheless Tesla lost 5%, Netflix 4.5%, Nvidia 3%.
US 10 year yields fall to below 5% on demand for safety to now trade at 4.8%. The probability of a 50 BPS hike has fallen to 50% from 80 yesterday.
The USD Index falls to 105.30 with EURUSD at 1.0580, GBPUSD at 1.1940 and USDJPY 136.70. CHF rises against USD as well as EUR to 92.90 and 98.40.
Gold and Silver remain undecided, at 1831 and 20.03, pls see our Kim Cramers technical outlook here
The key today will be the Nonfarm payroll and the big question on it`s effect on sentiment. Traders will watch:
Think hard on how much risk you want to carry in to a day like today and trade safely
A new fragmented world order can render some of today's infrastructure obselete, but it also calls for massive new investments across the globe, which requires a new set of strategic and tactical investment strategies.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
As globalisation turns to fragmentation, China seems set on playing a role in the global economy, while simultaneously working towards proofing its own economic situation from external shocks and crises.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
The recent bank runs and ensuing challenges are reminicent of something we've seen before. Will it end like the S&L crises of 1986 and 1995?
Chris Dembik,
Head of Macroeconomic Research
Equity markets need to recalibrate to another - fragmented - global world. What's your view on equities in this market - are they going up or down?
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
With every development comes new opportunites, some of which could be in India. Have you considered the country as a part of your diversification strategy?
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
A collar is an option strategy that allows some protection while maintaining some upside potential. What investment would you like to use a collar strategy for?
Hans Oudshoorn,
Trainer Academy
There are arguments to be made for many commodities to have upside. Which are you paying the most attention to this quarter?
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
In a very challenging macro environment, which currencies do you think will come out on top?
John J. Hardy,
Head of FX Strategy