Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Quiet trading into half year end - ECB Summit coming up
Good Morning,
Equities rebounded off the lows yesterday but it seemed like a mean reversion after Mondays decline more like any fundamental move. Nvidia gained 3%, Tesla 3.8%, Amazon 1.45%, Apple 1.5% and Microsoft 1.8%, pulling Indexes higher by between 0.6% (Dow) to 1.65% (Nasdaq) The GER40 reverted back above the 15900.
FY was very quiet, the USD Index is basically unchanged, the Yes as well as the Turkish Lira remain weak. EURUSD is 1.0950, GBPUSD 1.2735, USDJPY 143.95 and Gold and Silver 1915 and 23.90.
China reported weak industrial earnings showing the likelihood of stimulus on the horizon.
Key for today will be the ECB Summit in Portugal and the panel discussion this afternoon were we will get insights to the thoughts of the worlds key central bankers.
We have 3 days to half-year end, expect some position adjustments and reshuffles as the first half of 2023 certainly developed differently from what many fund managers expected.
Trade safely.