Morning Brew June 28 2021
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Traders complain about dull markets - Options interestingly cheap
The Dow and the S&P could rise on Friday by 0.7 and 0.33%, the Nasdaq fell slightly by 0.06%. Banks were allowed to pay dividends and buy back shares again. Over the weekend there was little movement as rising corona cases in certain areas puts traders on edge and offsets he positive impact that comes from the US Infrastructure package.
The USD Index trades at 91.83. Bitcoin at 34.400 and US 10 year rates at 1.5290. Gold and Silver rose to 1782 and 27.15 and EURUSD fell to 1.1905.
Volatilitiy has fallen to rather low levels, the 1 month Vol in EURUSD trades at 5.07, GBPUSD at 5.72 and Silver has fallen to 25%. Traders are complaining about the lack of movement (compared to the swings last year, it is a little quiet), buying options to be set up for the occasional sharp move like we had in the Fed decision may be worthwhile.
Oil has risen to the highest level since Q3 18 and 75.77 is the next resistance.
Ole Hansens COT Report: The accelerated metal selling that followed the # meeting drove down # longs by 33% to 76k lots, a seven week low and # by 36% to 29k while the # (-81%) returned to neutral. # long cut to one-year low. Speculators cut the bullish #grains bets to a 9 month low in week to June 22 with biggest reduction in #soybean (-25%) and bean oil (-22%) followed by #corn. Bucking the trend was #wheat which flipped back to a small net long.
- Didl is closing the books for the IPO a day early.
- UBS Ceo HAmers stated the recently reported job cuts were limited to certain areas and were headcount neutral as staff was being added in other places.
We are approaching a decent number of Futures and CFD expiries this week:
NGN1 will expire 28th June at 15:00 GMT.OJN1 will expire 29th June at 12:15 GMT.
HGN1, KEN1, PLN1, RRN1, SILN1, SIN1, ZCN1, ZLN1, ZMN1, ZSN1, ZWN1 will expire 29th June at 15:00 GMT.
HON1, RBN1, SBN1 will expire 30th June at 15:00
COPPERUSJUL21, CORNJUL21, GASOLINEUSJUL21, HEATINGOILJUL21, PLATINUMJUL21, SILVERJUL21, SOYBEANMEALJUL21, SOYBEANOILJUL21, SOYBEANSJUL21, SUGARNYJUL21, WHEATJUL21 will expire 28th June at 15:00 GMT.
OILUKAUG21 will expire 30th Jun at 15:00 GMT
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook Q3 2022: The Runaway Train
- Central banks' attempts to kill inflation is a paradigm shift, which could end in a deep recession.
Tangible assets and profitable growth are the winnersWith US equities officially in a bear market, the big question is where and when is the bottom in the current drawdown?
Understanding the lack of investment appetite among oil majorsThe everything rally seen in recent quarters has become more uneven, as its strength is driven by commodities in short supply.
The pressure is on as the wind leaves the sailsWith cryptocurrencies in sharp decline, are we entering a crypto winter or is the bear market a healthy clean-up of the crypto space?
Why the Fed can never catch up and what turns the US dollar lower?Many other central banks are set to eventually outpace the Fed in hiking rates, taking their real interest rates to levels higher than the Fed will achieve.
Bank of Japan: Swimming against the tideThe Japanese economy has gone from the age of deflation to rapidly rising prices in no time, leaving the Bank of Japan in a pickle.
Green transformation detour and bear market hibernationWith the impending risk of global econonomic derailment, we share the five things investors need to consider in this new half year.
Crisis redux for the eurozone?Whether there's going to be a recession in Europe or not, the path towards a stable economy will be agonizing.
Technical Outlook: Gold, Oil and a remarkable multi-decade perspective on EquitiesThe Nasdaq bubble pattern, USDJPY resistance, crude oil uptrend losing steam and the technical outlook for USD.
China: the train of new development paradigm left the station two years agoChina is transiting to a new development paradigm, as they are hit by deteriorating terms of trade, a slower global economy and an uncertain future while continuing attempts to contain the pandemic.