Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew June 28 2021

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Traders complain about dull markets - Options interestingly cheap


Good Morning

The Dow and the S&P could rise on Friday by 0.7 and 0.33%, the Nasdaq fell slightly by 0.06%. Banks were allowed to pay dividends and buy back shares again. Over the weekend there was little movement as rising corona cases in certain areas puts traders on edge and offsets he positive impact that comes from the US Infrastructure package.

The USD Index trades at 91.83. Bitcoin at 34.400 and US 10 year rates at 1.5290. Gold and Silver rose to 1782 and 27.15 and EURUSD fell to 1.1905.

Volatilitiy has fallen to rather low levels, the 1 month Vol in EURUSD trades at 5.07, GBPUSD at 5.72 and Silver has fallen to 25%. Traders are complaining about the lack of movement (compared to the swings last year, it is a little quiet), buying options to be set up for the occasional sharp move like we had in the Fed decision may be worthwhile.

Oil has risen to the highest level since Q3 18 and 75.77 is the next resistance.

Ole Hansens COT Report: The accelerated metal selling that followed the #FOMC meeting drove down #gold longs by 33% to 76k lots, a seven week low and #silver by 36% to 29k while the #platinum (-81%) returned to neutral. #Copper long cut to one-year low. Speculators cut the bullish #grains bets to a 9 month low in week to June 22 with biggest reduction in #soybean (-25%) and bean oil (-22%) followed by #corn. Bucking the trend was #wheat which flipped back to a small net long.

  • Didl is closing the books for the IPO a day early.
  • UBS Ceo HAmers stated the recently reported job cuts were limited to certain areas and were headcount neutral as staff was being added in other places.

We are approaching a decent number of Futures and CFD expiries this week:

NGN1 will expire 28th June at 15:00 GMT.OJN1 will expire 29th June at 12:15 GMT.

HGN1, KEN1, PLN1, RRN1, SILN1, SIN1, ZCN1, ZLN1, ZMN1, ZSN1, ZWN1 will expire 29th June at 15:00 GMT.

HON1, RBN1, SBN1 will expire 30th June at 15:00

COPPERUSJUL21, CORNJUL21, GASOLINEUSJUL21, HEATINGOILJUL21, PLATINUMJUL21, SILVERJUL21, SOYBEANMEALJUL21, SOYBEANOILJUL21, SOYBEANSJUL21, SUGARNYJUL21, WHEATJUL21 will expire 28th June at 15:00 GMT.

OILUKAUG21 will expire 30th Jun at 15:00 GMT

Local Start Date

Local Time

Country/Region

Indicator Name

Period

Reuters Poll

Unit

29 Jun 2021

01:30

Japan

Jobs/Applicants Ratio

May

1.08

Times

29 Jun 2021

01:30

Japan

Unemployment Rate

May

2.9%

Percent

29 Jun 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

Nationwide house price mm

Jun

Percent

29 Jun 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

Nationwide house price yy

Jun

Percent

29 Jun 2021

11:00

Euro Zone

Consumer Confid. Final

Jun

Net balance

29 Jun 2021

13:00

Brazil

IGP-M Inflation Index

Jun

Percent

29 Jun 2021

14:00

Germany

CPI Prelim YY

Jun

2.3%

Percent

29 Jun 2021

14:00

Germany

HICP Prelim YY

Jun

2.2%

Percent

29 Jun 2021

16:00

United States

Consumer Confidence

Jun

118.8

Index

30 Jun 2021

01:50

Japan

Industrial O/P Prelim MM SA

May

-2.4%

Percent

30 Jun 2021

03:00

China (Mainland)

NBS Manufacturing PMI

Jun

Index (diffusion)

30 Jun 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

GDP QQ

Q1

Percent

30 Jun 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

GDP YY

Q1

Percent

30 Jun 2021

08:00

Denmark

GDP QQ Revised

Q1

Percent

30 Jun 2021

08:00

Denmark

GDP YY Revised

Q1

Percent

30 Jun 2021

08:00

Denmark

Unemployment Rate

May

Percent

30 Jun 2021

08:45

France

CPI (EU Norm) Prelim YY

Jun

Percent

30 Jun 2021

09:00

Switzerland

KOF Indicator

Jun

Index (diffusion)

30 Jun 2021

09:00

Switzerland

Official Reserves Assets CHF

May

CHF

30 Jun 2021

09:55

Germany

Unemployment Chg SA

Jun

-16k

Person

30 Jun 2021

09:55

Germany

Unemployment Rate SA

Jun

5.9%

Percent

30 Jun 2021

11:00

Italy

CPI (EU Norm) Prelim MM

Jun

Percent

30 Jun 2021

11:00

Italy

CPI (EU Norm) Prelim YY

Jun

Percent

30 Jun 2021

11:00

Euro Zone

HICP Flash YY

Jun

1.9%

Percent

30 Jun 2021

11:00

Euro Zone

HICP-X F&E Flash YY

Jun

Percent

30 Jun 2021

12:00

Italy

CPI (EU Norm) Prelim MM

Jun

Percent

30 Jun 2021

14:30

Canada

GDP MM

Apr

Percent

1 Jul 2021

01:50

Japan

Tankan Big Mf Idx

Q2

15

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

01:50

Japan

Tankan Big Mf Outlook DI

Q2

18

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

01:50

Japan

Tankan Big Non-Mf Idx

Q2

3

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

01:50

Japan

Tankan All Big Capex Est

Q2

7.2%

Percent

1 Jul 2021

01:50

Japan

Tankan Small Mf Idx

Q2

-5

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

01:50

Japan

Tankan Sm Mf Outlook DI

Q2

-3

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

01:50

Japan

Tankan Small Non-Mf Idx

Q2

-9

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

01:50

Japan

Tankan Sm Non-Mf Outlook DI

Q2

-8

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

01:50

Japan

Tankan All Sm Capex Est

Q2

-2.6%

Percent

1 Jul 2021

02:30

Japan

Jibun Bank Mfg PMI

Jun

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

02:30

South Korea

IHS Markit Mfg PMI

Jun

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

03:30

Australia

Trade Balance G&S (A$)

May

AUD

1 Jul 2021

03:45

China (Mainland)

Caixin Mfg PMI Final

Jun

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

09:00

Turkey

Manufacturing PMI

Jun

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

09:30

Sweden

Riksbank Rate

1 Jul

Percent

1 Jul 2021

09:45

Italy

Markit/IHS Mfg PMI

Jun

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

09:50

France

Markit Mfg PMI

Jun

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

09:55

Germany

Markit/BME Mfg PMI

Jun

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

10:00

Euro Zone

Markit Mfg Final PMI

Jun

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

10:30

United Kingdom

Markit/CIPS Mfg PMI Final

Jun

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

11:00

Turkey

ITO Istanbul Retail Prices

Jun

Percent

1 Jul 2021

11:00

Euro Zone

Unemployment Rate

May

7.9%

Percent

1 Jul 2021

14:30

United States

Initial Jobless Clm

21 Jun, w/e

Person

1 Jul 2021

15:00

Brazil

Markit Mfg PMI

Jun

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

15:45

United States

Markit Mfg PMI Final

Jun

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

16:00

United States

ISM Manufacturing PMI

Jun

61.0

Index

Refinitiv


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