Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew June 28 2021

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Traders complain about dull markets - Options interestingly cheap


Good Morning

The Dow and the S&P could rise on Friday by 0.7 and 0.33%, the Nasdaq fell slightly by 0.06%. Banks were allowed to pay dividends and buy back shares again. Over the weekend there was little movement as rising corona cases in certain areas puts traders on edge and offsets he positive impact that comes from the US Infrastructure package.

The USD Index trades at 91.83. Bitcoin at 34.400 and US 10 year rates at 1.5290. Gold and Silver rose to 1782 and 27.15 and EURUSD fell to 1.1905.

Volatilitiy has fallen to rather low levels, the 1 month Vol in EURUSD trades at 5.07, GBPUSD at 5.72 and Silver has fallen to 25%. Traders are complaining about the lack of movement (compared to the swings last year, it is a little quiet), buying options to be set up for the occasional sharp move like we had in the Fed decision may be worthwhile.

Oil has risen to the highest level since Q3 18 and 75.77 is the next resistance.

Ole Hansens COT Report: The accelerated metal selling that followed the #FOMC meeting drove down #gold longs by 33% to 76k lots, a seven week low and #silver by 36% to 29k while the #platinum (-81%) returned to neutral. #Copper long cut to one-year low. Speculators cut the bullish #grains bets to a 9 month low in week to June 22 with biggest reduction in #soybean (-25%) and bean oil (-22%) followed by #corn. Bucking the trend was #wheat which flipped back to a small net long.

  • Didl is closing the books for the IPO a day early.
  • UBS Ceo HAmers stated the recently reported job cuts were limited to certain areas and were headcount neutral as staff was being added in other places.

We are approaching a decent number of Futures and CFD expiries this week:

NGN1 will expire 28th June at 15:00 GMT.OJN1 will expire 29th June at 12:15 GMT.

HGN1, KEN1, PLN1, RRN1, SILN1, SIN1, ZCN1, ZLN1, ZMN1, ZSN1, ZWN1 will expire 29th June at 15:00 GMT.

HON1, RBN1, SBN1 will expire 30th June at 15:00

COPPERUSJUL21, CORNJUL21, GASOLINEUSJUL21, HEATINGOILJUL21, PLATINUMJUL21, SILVERJUL21, SOYBEANMEALJUL21, SOYBEANOILJUL21, SOYBEANSJUL21, SUGARNYJUL21, WHEATJUL21 will expire 28th June at 15:00 GMT.

OILUKAUG21 will expire 30th Jun at 15:00 GMT

Local Start Date

Local Time

Country/Region

Indicator Name

Period

Reuters Poll

Unit

29 Jun 2021

01:30

Japan

Jobs/Applicants Ratio

May

1.08

Times

29 Jun 2021

01:30

Japan

Unemployment Rate

May

2.9%

Percent

29 Jun 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

Nationwide house price mm

Jun

Percent

29 Jun 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

Nationwide house price yy

Jun

Percent

29 Jun 2021

11:00

Euro Zone

Consumer Confid. Final

Jun

Net balance

29 Jun 2021

13:00

Brazil

IGP-M Inflation Index

Jun

Percent

29 Jun 2021

14:00

Germany

CPI Prelim YY

Jun

2.3%

Percent

29 Jun 2021

14:00

Germany

HICP Prelim YY

Jun

2.2%

Percent

29 Jun 2021

16:00

United States

Consumer Confidence

Jun

118.8

Index

30 Jun 2021

01:50

Japan

Industrial O/P Prelim MM SA

May

-2.4%

Percent

30 Jun 2021

03:00

China (Mainland)

NBS Manufacturing PMI

Jun

Index (diffusion)

30 Jun 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

GDP QQ

Q1

Percent

30 Jun 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

GDP YY

Q1

Percent

30 Jun 2021

08:00

Denmark

GDP QQ Revised

Q1

Percent

30 Jun 2021

08:00

Denmark

GDP YY Revised

Q1

Percent

30 Jun 2021

08:00

Denmark

Unemployment Rate

May

Percent

30 Jun 2021

08:45

France

CPI (EU Norm) Prelim YY

Jun

Percent

30 Jun 2021

09:00

Switzerland

KOF Indicator

Jun

Index (diffusion)

30 Jun 2021

09:00

Switzerland

Official Reserves Assets CHF

May

CHF

30 Jun 2021

09:55

Germany

Unemployment Chg SA

Jun

-16k

Person

30 Jun 2021

09:55

Germany

Unemployment Rate SA

Jun

5.9%

Percent

30 Jun 2021

11:00

Italy

CPI (EU Norm) Prelim MM

Jun

Percent

30 Jun 2021

11:00

Italy

CPI (EU Norm) Prelim YY

Jun

Percent

30 Jun 2021

11:00

Euro Zone

HICP Flash YY

Jun

1.9%

Percent

30 Jun 2021

11:00

Euro Zone

HICP-X F&E Flash YY

Jun

Percent

30 Jun 2021

12:00

Italy

CPI (EU Norm) Prelim MM

Jun

Percent

30 Jun 2021

14:30

Canada

GDP MM

Apr

Percent

1 Jul 2021

01:50

Japan

Tankan Big Mf Idx

Q2

15

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

01:50

Japan

Tankan Big Mf Outlook DI

Q2

18

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

01:50

Japan

Tankan Big Non-Mf Idx

Q2

3

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

01:50

Japan

Tankan All Big Capex Est

Q2

7.2%

Percent

1 Jul 2021

01:50

Japan

Tankan Small Mf Idx

Q2

-5

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

01:50

Japan

Tankan Sm Mf Outlook DI

Q2

-3

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

01:50

Japan

Tankan Small Non-Mf Idx

Q2

-9

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

01:50

Japan

Tankan Sm Non-Mf Outlook DI

Q2

-8

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

01:50

Japan

Tankan All Sm Capex Est

Q2

-2.6%

Percent

1 Jul 2021

02:30

Japan

Jibun Bank Mfg PMI

Jun

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

02:30

South Korea

IHS Markit Mfg PMI

Jun

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

03:30

Australia

Trade Balance G&S (A$)

May

AUD

1 Jul 2021

03:45

China (Mainland)

Caixin Mfg PMI Final

Jun

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

09:00

Turkey

Manufacturing PMI

Jun

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

09:30

Sweden

Riksbank Rate

1 Jul

Percent

1 Jul 2021

09:45

Italy

Markit/IHS Mfg PMI

Jun

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

09:50

France

Markit Mfg PMI

Jun

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

09:55

Germany

Markit/BME Mfg PMI

Jun

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

10:00

Euro Zone

Markit Mfg Final PMI

Jun

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

10:30

United Kingdom

Markit/CIPS Mfg PMI Final

Jun

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

11:00

Turkey

ITO Istanbul Retail Prices

Jun

Percent

1 Jul 2021

11:00

Euro Zone

Unemployment Rate

May

7.9%

Percent

1 Jul 2021

14:30

United States

Initial Jobless Clm

21 Jun, w/e

Person

1 Jul 2021

15:00

Brazil

Markit Mfg PMI

Jun

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

15:45

United States

Markit Mfg PMI Final

Jun

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

16:00

United States

ISM Manufacturing PMI

Jun

61.0

Index

Refinitiv


Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
Beethovenstrasse 33
CH-8002
Zürich
Switzerland

Contact Saxo

Select region

Switzerland
Switzerland

All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed here or within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law.

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.