Morning Brew June 20 2022
Senior Relationship Manager
After an extremely volatile week, the one ahead only holds a limited amount of key data. Today and tomorrow the calendar is basically empty after the German PPI came as high as expected, Wednesday UK and Canadian Inflation data and international PMI on Thursday will be closely watched before we will receive UK retail Sales on Friday, as well as the IFO from Germany and the University of Michigan. Rate decisions are expected out of the Czech republic and Turkey.
Key will be the sentiment after the massive moves and policy adjustments last week. As central Banks are raising rates, growth is slowing down and the S&P is in a confirmed downtrend at 23% off the high. International growth worries due to rising rates weigh on commodity prices and equities, the fact that China is likely to maintain corona lockdowns for the remainder of the year is also likely weigh on demand – possibly making for good entry points.
Over night, Indexes trade fairly calm and in the FX market the USD gives up a little ground. The GER40 trades at 13178, the US 500 at 3688 and the USTech 100 at 11341.
The USD Index retreats to 104.40, EURUSD 1.0540, Cable 1.2245 and USDJPY 134.80. Gold and Silver rise a little but remain rangebound at 1844 and 21.70.
Bitcoin is stuck near the 20.000 in nervous trading.
With little in terms of data, I would expect the week to be news driven with comments out of central banks and Analysts being closely watched, also any fallout from the market jumps will be closely watched. Trading is likely to be jumpy as traders and investors are looking for clues if we have reached the bottom or if the risk off moves continue.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook Q3 2022: The Runaway Train
- Central banks' attempts to kill inflation is a paradigm shift, which could end in a deep recession.
Tangible assets and profitable growth are the winnersWith US equities officially in a bear market, the big question is where and when is the bottom in the current drawdown?
Understanding the lack of investment appetite among oil majorsThe everything rally seen in recent quarters has become more uneven, as its strength is driven by commodities in short supply.
The pressure is on as the wind leaves the sailsWith cryptocurrencies in sharp decline, are we entering a crypto winter or is the bear market a healthy clean-up of the crypto space?
Why the Fed can never catch up and what turns the US dollar lower?Many other central banks are set to eventually outpace the Fed in hiking rates, taking their real interest rates to levels higher than the Fed will achieve.
Bank of Japan: Swimming against the tideThe Japanese economy has gone from the age of deflation to rapidly rising prices in no time, leaving the Bank of Japan in a pickle.
Green transformation detour and bear market hibernationWith the impending risk of global econonomic derailment, we share the five things investors need to consider in this new half year.
Crisis redux for the eurozone?Whether there's going to be a recession in Europe or not, the path towards a stable economy will be agonizing.