Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew June 14 2023

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  FOMC Day


Good Morning to FOMC day

The slightly lower CPI yesterday caused the expectation for the FOMC decision tonight has shifted from approximately 70% in favor of no action to 90%.

Equities traded friendly on that news but unspectacularly so. The three large US Indexes all add less than 1%, and the GER40 holds near 16200. Volumes were rather high at 10% above average . AMD presented it`s AI strategy and the share dropped while Nvidia could profit by the same percentage amount and Nvidia closed above 1 trillion in Market cap.

The US Index is weak ahead of the rate decision at 103.32, EURUSD is 1,0780, GBPUSD 1,2610 and USDJPY crossed to above 140 on a weak Yen.

As US Yields remained firm after the CPI – It seems that FX / Rates and Equity traders follow different assumptions  - Gold and Silver dropped  before recovering again. Gold rose to 1970 just after the CPI then fell to 1940 to now trade 1947. The Turkish Lira remains near record weakness at above 23.65.

Unless there is a massive surprise in the rate decision, all focus tonight will be on the speech of Jerome Powell. Focus will be on the question on a dovish, neutral or dovish pause – should there be a hike, that question would be answered and focus would shift to the rationale.

The PPI should only move markets significantly if there were a real outlier.

Consider your position sizes and maybe use options for speculative exposures as markets are likely to move quickly later.

Wednesday June 14
UK GDP
US PPI Machine Manuf'ing

Rate decision

Earnings: Lennar

Thursday June 15

Japan Trade
China Retail Sales
ECB Refinancing Rate
US Retail Sales MM

Earnings: Adobe, Kroger, Jabil, Halma

Friday June 16

Italy CPI

Expiries

        Physically Settled Futures

ADM3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 15:00 GMT

BPM3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 15:00 GMT

DXM3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 09:00 GMT

E7M3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 15:00 GMT

ECM3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 15:00 GMT

JYM3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 15:00 GMT

M6EM3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 15:00 GMT

MPM3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 15:00 GMT

MSFM3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 15:00 GMT

NEM3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 15:00 GMT

NOM3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 15:00 GMT

PJYM3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 15:00 GMT

RFM3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 15:00 GMT

RPM3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 15:00 GMT

RYM3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 15:00 GMT

SFM3 will expire 15 Jun 2023 at 15:00 GMT

 

Expiring CFDs

DEN25JUN23 will expire 14 Jun 2023 14:55 GMT

USDINDEXJUN23 will expire 14 Jun 2023 15:00 GMT

AUS200JUN23 will expire 15 Jun 2023 12:00 GMT

ZA40JUN23 will expire 15 Jun 2023 08:00 GMT

 

Futures can be rolled online via the Futures Spread Trade Ticket. Any open positions will be closed after the mentioned times.

 

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