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Morning Brew June 11 2021
Good Morning
Despite very high inflation yesterday the reaction was extremely muted as traders bought the narrative that the rise was “transiatory” and not fundamental. US 10 year yields actually fell to 1.43, pushing the USD Index to just below 90. The main price drivers were air fares at 7% Motor Vehicles t 4% and commodities at 1.1%.
The ECB Conference was basically a non-event.
EURUSD was calm, GBPUSD could gain to 1.4182, Gold and Silver rise to 1900 and 28.08. Emerging Markets currencies can gain against the USD.
There was less movement in Equities than I had expected with the Dow up 0.06%, the S&P 0.47% and the Nasdaq 0.78% but the S&P 500 closed at an all time high at 4239. Most economists polled by Reuters believe the Fed will announce a tapering strategy either at the Jackson Hole conference (26%) or the September meeting (32%) and to take effect in 2022 (58%).
GameStop dropped 27.2% after the videogame retailer said it may sell new shares
With the calendar being somewhat thin today, news from the G7 could move the markets.
Safe Trading
Local Start Date | Local Time | Country/Region | Indicator Name | Period | Reuters Poll | Actual | Unit |
11 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | GDP Est 3M/3M | Apr | 1.6% | Percent | |
11 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | GDP Estimate MM | Apr | 2.4% | Percent | |
11 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | GDP Estimate YY | Apr | 27.9% | Percent | |
11 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Manufacturing Output MM | Apr | 1.5% | Percent | |
11 Jun 2021 | 16:00 | United States | U Mich Sentiment Prelim | Jun | 84.0 | Index | |
14 Jun 2021 | 09:00 | Turkey | Current Account Balance | Apr | USD |
(Refinitiv)