Senior Relationship Manager
Good Morning
Markets remain rangebound ahead of the key data releases today.
At 13:45 CET the ECB will announce the race decision, the probability for no change in rates is 95%. At 14:30 the US CPI will be released as the key event of the day. The economist estimate is an increase of 4.7% and several people fear a 5 as big figure. At the same time, Initial Jobless claims expected at 370k will be released and the ECB press conference starts.
Equities dipped a little lower yesterday but recovered basically to where we started, traders are looking for the CPI and any following comments on tapering or higher rates in the aftermath. The most interesting moves were Bitcoin up 13% to 37k after El Salvador accepts the crypto currency as legal tender.
US rates are being pushed lower by rising bank deposits and a falling deposit to loan ratio. We are nearing this year`s low (1.47%).
Reuters reports that lawmakers are working on drafts antitrust bills aimed directly at Big Tech, and may introduce them within days.
Meme stocks have received $1.27 billion of retail inflows in the past fortnight, matching the peak in January, larger than any single sector or industry Vanda Research released.
U.S. and Chinese commerce officials met on the phone and agreed to cooperate on differences. Joe Biden on Wednesday withdrew orders that sought to ban of WeChat and TikTok.
According to Nikkei, the G7 are considering the inclusion of a statement on the Taiwan Straights in their next statement. That would most likely not be appreciated by China.
Local Start Date | Local Time | Country/Region | Indicator Name | Period | Reuters Poll | Actual | Unit |
10 Jun 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Corp Goods Price MM | May | 0.5% | Percent | |
10 Jun 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Corp Goods Price YY | May | 4.5% | Percent | |
10 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | Norway | Consumer Price Index MM | May | Percent | ||
10 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | Norway | Consumer Price Index YY | May | 2.9% | Percent | |
10 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | Denmark | CPI YY | May | Percent | ||
10 Jun 2021 | 09:30 | Sweden | CPI MM | May | Percent | ||
10 Jun 2021 | 09:30 | Sweden | CPI YY | May | 2.0% | Percent | |
10 Jun 2021 | 13:45 | Euro Zone | ECB Refinancing Rate | Jun | 0.00% | Percent | |
10 Jun 2021 | 13:45 | Euro Zone | ECB Deposit Rate | Jun | -0.50% | Percent | |
10 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | United States | CPI MM, SA | May | 0.4% | Percent | |
10 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Initial Jobless Clm | 5 Jun, w/e | 371k | Person | |
10 Jun 2021 | China (Mainland) | Total Social Financing | May | 2,002.30B | CNY | ||
10 Jun 2021 | China (Mainland) | M2 Money Supply YY | May | 8.1% | Percent | ||
10 Jun 2021 | China (Mainland) | New Yuan Loans | May | 1,410.0B | CNY | ||
11 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | GDP Est 3M/3M | Apr | 1.6% | Percent | |
11 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | GDP Estimate MM | Apr | 2.4% | Percent | |
11 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | GDP Estimate YY | Apr | 27.9% | Percent | |
11 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Manufacturing Output MM | Apr | 1.5% | Percent | |
11 Jun 2021 | 16:00 | United States | U Mich Sentiment Prelim | Jun | 84.0 | Index | |
14 Jun 2021 | 09:00 | Turkey | Current Account Balance | Apr | USD |
(Refinitiv)
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.