Morning Brew June 10 2021

Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Good Morning

Markets remain rangebound ahead of the key data releases today.

At 13:45 CET the ECB will announce the race decision, the probability for no change in rates is 95%. At 14:30 the US CPI will be released as the key event of the day. The economist estimate is an increase of 4.7% and several people fear a 5 as big figure. At the same time, Initial Jobless claims expected at 370k will be released and the ECB press conference starts.

Equities dipped a little lower yesterday but recovered basically to where we started, traders are looking for the CPI and any following comments on tapering or higher rates in the aftermath. The most interesting moves were Bitcoin up 13% to 37k after El Salvador accepts the crypto currency as legal tender.

US rates are being pushed lower by rising bank deposits and a falling deposit to loan ratio. We are nearing this year`s low (1.47%).

Reuters reports that lawmakers are working on drafts antitrust bills aimed directly at Big Tech, and may introduce them within days.

Meme stocks have received $1.27 billion of retail inflows in the past fortnight, matching the peak in January, larger than any single sector or industry Vanda Research released.

U.S. and Chinese commerce officials met on the phone and agreed to cooperate on differences. Joe Biden on Wednesday withdrew orders that sought to ban of WeChat and TikTok.

According to Nikkei, the G7 are considering the inclusion of a statement on the Taiwan Straights in their next statement. That would most likely not be appreciated by China.

Local Start Date

Local Time

Country/Region

Indicator Name

Period

Reuters Poll

Actual

Unit

10 Jun 2021

01:50

Japan

Corp Goods Price MM

May

0.5%

Percent

10 Jun 2021

01:50

Japan

Corp Goods Price YY

May

4.5%

Percent

10 Jun 2021

08:00

Norway

Consumer Price Index MM

May

Percent

10 Jun 2021

08:00

Norway

Consumer Price Index YY

May

2.9%

Percent

10 Jun 2021

08:00

Denmark

CPI YY

May

Percent

10 Jun 2021

09:30

Sweden

CPI MM

May

Percent

10 Jun 2021

09:30

Sweden

CPI YY

May

2.0%

Percent

10 Jun 2021

13:45

Euro Zone

ECB Refinancing Rate

Jun

0.00%

Percent

10 Jun 2021

13:45

Euro Zone

ECB Deposit Rate

Jun

-0.50%

Percent

10 Jun 2021

14:30

United States

CPI MM, SA

May

0.4%

Percent

10 Jun 2021

14:30

United States

Initial Jobless Clm

5 Jun, w/e

371k

Person

10 Jun 2021

China (Mainland)

Total Social Financing

May

2,002.30B

CNY

10 Jun 2021

China (Mainland)

M2 Money Supply YY

May

8.1%

Percent

10 Jun 2021

China (Mainland)

New Yuan Loans

May

1,410.0B

CNY

11 Jun 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

GDP Est 3M/3M

Apr

1.6%

Percent

11 Jun 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

GDP Estimate MM

Apr

2.4%

Percent

11 Jun 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

GDP Estimate YY

Apr

27.9%

Percent

11 Jun 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

Manufacturing Output MM

Apr

1.5%

Percent

11 Jun 2021

16:00

United States

U Mich Sentiment Prelim

Jun

84.0

Index

14 Jun 2021

09:00

Turkey

Current Account Balance

Apr

USD

(Refinitiv)

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