Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Chief Macro Strategist
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Morning Brew July 5 2023
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Markets waking up again - PMI and Fed Minutes up
Good Morning,
Due to the 4th of July Holiday markets were fairly subdued yesterday and remain so in early European trading. The weak Chinese Service PMI is weighing on Risk sentiment and pushed Indexed a little lower but trading is in tight ranges.
The US 500 is at 4450, the US 30 at 34361 and the US Tech 100 at 15185. TGER40 retreated to 16015.
The USD Index remains locked near 103, EURUSD is a tad lower at 1.0870, GBPUSD 1.2700 and USDJPY 144.60. Gold and Silver continue to try to break the 1930 and the 23 figure. Our Kim Cramer is cautiously optimistic: Gold formed bottom and reversal pattern after bouncing from 1,900. Eyeing 2K but will not be without a struggle.
Silver finding support just above 22.00 and seems to be building uptrend
Copper could be range bound for a while. 382 could be the Bull/Bear Pivot
Oil rose to 70.90 on the Saudi output throttles and the Opec Meeting the next two days.
Yields remain of interest as our Althea sees the inversion of the yield curve increase even further over the summer.
Tesla China June deliveries up 20% from May, maybe a good sign to watch for China and makes Tesla the stock to watch again.
Today, International PMI through the day and most importantly the Fed minutes re coming up, that aside, we have an eye on Sino-American and Sino-EU relations with Janet Yellen visiting China, trade restrictions and the cancellation of EU Representative Borrell`s visit.
Data: .
- WED: July 5th FOMC Minutes, Chinese Caixin Services PMI Final (Jun), EZ/UK/US Services & Composite PMI Final (Jun), US Durable Goods R (May)
- THU: July 6th NBP Announcement, Australian Trade Balance (May), EZ Retail Sales (May), US ADP National Employment (Jun), US ISM Services PMI (Jun) Opec Seminar
- FRI July 7th : German Industrial Output (May), US Jobs Report (Jun), Canadian Jobs Report (Jun)
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