Morning Brew July 4 2025

Good morning,

I will be off next week, and the next Morning Brew will be on 15th July.

We saw strong nonfarm payrolls and low unemployment figures yesterday, and the reaction was not entirely what we would have expected. Yields rose and boosted the USD—at least initially—but equities remained stronger than I anticipated. The NFP increased by 147,000 in June, surpassing the forecast of 111,000, and the unemployment rate decreased to 4.1%. This data essentially took a July rate cut off the table; we are now at a probability of less than 5%, down from nearly 30% yesterday. Two rate cuts remain priced in, while four are off the table (for now).

Ten-year yields are now at 4.35, EUR/USD at 1.1760, USD/JPY at 144.36, GBP/USD at 1.3670, and USD/CHF at 0.7930.Bitcoin is trading near the near 110000 again.

Precious metals seesawed after the data but remain strong, with gold at 3340, silver at 36.85, and platinum at 1388.

The S&P 500 closed up 0.83%, the Nasdaq gained 1.02%, and the Dow rose 0.77%. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 1.7%, the Nasdaq 1.6%, and the Dow 2.3%, the Russell 2000 rose 3.4%.

The GER40 is within view of the 24k but is struggling with the break higher.

The positive influence seemed to come from tech, with Nvidia approaching a market cap of 4 trillion and appearing on track to surpass Apple as the most valuable company. The “Big Beautiful Bill” took the last real hurdle and will now be signed; commentators point out it is likely to cause a big, beautiful debt spiral, it is expected to add close to one Nvidia in debt.

According to Donald Trump, today the US will send out letters to inform numerous countries of their new tariff rates. The administration is far from achieving 90 deals in 90 days and seems to be applying a blanket approach now. Any concrete news poses the biggest risk to markets for the next week.

Donald Trump was disappointed after a call with Vladimir Putin because it does not appear the latter is looking to end the war against Ukraine, Trump is scheduled to speak with Wolodymyr Selenskyj.

Trade carefully

July 4, 2025 (Friday)

  - Swiss unemployment rate
- DE industrial Orders
- EU Producer Prics

July 7, 2025 (Monday)

  - Leading Indicators (1:00)–May P Japan

  - Current Account (19:50)–May Japan

  - Trade Balance (19:50)–May Japan

  - Retail Sales (5:00)–May Eurozone

July 8, 2025 (Tuesday)

Consumer Credit (15:00)–May U.S.

- July 9, 2025 (Wednesday)
- China CPI & PPI
- AU rate decision
  - Wholesale Inventories (10:00)–May F U.S.
 - Machine Tool Orders (2:00)–Jun P Japan
- July 10, 2025 (Thursday)
  - No major releases
- July 11, 2025 (Friday)
  - Treasury Statement (14:00)–Jun U.S.
  - Employment Report (8:30)–Jun Canada
  - Building Permits (8:30)–May Canada
  - Industrial Production (2:00)–May U.K.
  - Trade Balance (2:00)–May U.K.