Morning Brew July 28 2025

Good morning,

The EU and the US reached a trade agreement last night. EU goods will be subjected to a 15% tax, and the EU plans to invest in the US and purchase $750 billion worth of energy. There is widespread criticism of the agreement fromm all sides of the political spectrum stating the EU caved to the US to save the German Auto industry. There is also hope for an extension of the Sino-US tariff truce.

The market reaction is cautiously optimistic: The GER40 is up by 1% and US indexes have risen approximately 0.5%, now at 24,530. EUR/USD remains unchanged at 1.1740.

We are entering a week of significant importance:
Earnings reports coming from Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and others. T

The US rate decision is scheduled for Wednesday, with 97% probability of no action expected. The key will be Powell's guidance and its impact on the end-of-year rate, currently at minus 45 basis points.

The PCE Deflator, expected on Thursday, is anticipated at 2.5% with a core of 2.7%. The US Nonfarm Payroll report due Friday is anticipated to show figures at 102k.

Key questions we seek answers to include:

• The health of big tech
• Whether there is inflationary pressure from tariffs or the anti-immigration efforts of the Trump administration
• The current state of the labor market

Beyond planned releases, Trump's drama involving the Epstein files will be closely monitored, and his deflection tactics are widely commented upon.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq set record high closes on Friday, with the S&P 500 achieving a closing record every day this week. The last “perfect week” of closing highs—from Monday through Friday—occurred in November 2021. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 1.46%, the Nasdaq rose 1.02%, and the Dow climbed 1.26%.

Precious metals lost ground on Friday but are recovering slightly after the weekend. Gold is priced at 3342, Silver at 38.25, and Platinum at 1420.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk announced that the U.S. automaker has signed a $16.5 billion deal to source chips from Samsung Electronics.

On Monday, Dutch brewer Heineken reported a 7.4% increase in half-year organic operating profit, surpassing analyst expectations.

 Monday, July 28, 2025

- India Industrial Production & Manufacturing Output (July): Key gauge of Asia’s third-largest economy’s momentum

- Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (US, July): Insight into the health of the Texas manufacturing sector

Tuesday, July 29, 2025

- US Consumer Confidence (July): Conference Board’s reading, watched for consumer sentiment shifts

- US Q2 GDP (First Estimate): First look at economic growth for Q2, expected to show rebound

- Eurozone GDP Growth QoQ Flash (Q2): Early read on eurozone economic activity

- Key Earnings: Visa, Starbucks, P&G, Spotify, Boeing, UnitedHealth, PayPal, UPS,

 Wednesday, July 30, 2025

- Swiss KOF INdicator

- Expectations that rates will remain steady; markets will US Federal Reserve (FOMC) Meeting & Rate Decision: focus on the policy tone

- Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision: No change expected in benchmark rates

- Eurozone & German GDP, Retail Sales (Q2): Regional growth snapshot

- US ADP Employment Pending Home Sales (June): Insight into the US housing market,

- Key Earnings: Microsoft, Meta, American Tower, KraftHeinz, Ford, TEVA Robinhood, Qualcom

Thursday, July 31, 2025

• Swiss retail Sales-

 Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision & JGB Purchases: Critical for yen and global bond markets

- Australian Retail Sales (June): Indicator for Asia-Pacific markets

- Chinese PMI (July): Update on manufacturing activity in the world’s second-largest economy

- US PCE Price Index (June): The Fed’s preferred inflation metric

- German Consumer Price Inflation (July): Key for ECB policy watchers

- Key Earnings: Apple, Mastercard,  Amazon.com AbbVie, , Comcast, Roku, Reddit, Coinbase

 Friday, August 1, 2025

- Swiss National Holiday

- US Nonfarm Payrolls (July): Flagship labor market report, forecast to show slowdown in hiring

- Japan Rate Decision

- US Unemployment Rate (July): Expected at 4.2%

- Average Hourly Earnings (July): Monitoring wage growth pressures

- US ISM Manufacturing PMI (July): Vital for near-term growth signals

- Eurozone Consumer Price Inflation (July): Crucial inflation readout

- Chinese Manufacturing PMI (July): Health of the world’s manufacturing engine

- Key Earnings: Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Colgate-Palmolive, Linde,