Morning Brew July 22 2025

Good morning,

Equities remain strong with the US500 at 6305, the US tech 100 23150, the US 30 44340 and the GER40 24215.

Headlines give a little confidence, as Luttnick was optimistic on a deal with the EU even though he reaffirmed the August 1 deadline was firm.

US Yields declined to 4.94 and  4.37 letting the USD index fall to 97.96, EURUSD is 1.1680, GBPUSD 1.3470, USDJPY 147.75.

Gold and Silver had a strong day yesterday, both breaking important technical formations and currently trading 3385 and 38.75.

• Today, earnings and politics are likely to be key as the data is of limited importance for traders.
• U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called for reforms of what he called an antiquated financial regulatory system and said regulators should consider scrapping a "flawed," Biden-era proposal for a dual capital requirement structure for banks acc to Reuters. This puts focus on central bank independence.
• The EU is preparing counter-measures against the United States to prepare for August 1^st.
• 60 German Companies launch an investment initiative to the tune of 100 bio Euro acc to Bloomberg
• AstraZeneca announces USD 50 billion in US Investment
• Nielsen Research revealed that YouTube has 12% viewing time in the US without any spending on content creation!
• Donald Trump is excluding the Wall Street Journal from a trip to Scotland in an escalation of the discord around the reporting on the Trump/Epstein relationship.

Trade safely!!

Tuesday, July 22

- Eurozone: ECB Bank Lending Survey[1].

- US: Fed Chair Powell Speech; Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index.

- US: Redbook year-over-year growth.

- US: 10-Year TIPS Auction.

- US: 15-Year and 30-Year Mortgage Rate updates.

- US: Fed Balance Sheet release.

Earnings: Lockheed Martin, Coca Cola, Phillip Morris, GM, RTX, SAP, Texas Instruments,

SAP: Investors are looking for whether Europe’s largest software company can maintain its momentum from Q1 results which saw the shares surge on forecast-beating income and strong cost discipline, with the company enjoying rising demand for its cloud-based services related to the AI boom. Shares rallied the most in six years on the last set of results and are up 10% YTD.

UniCredit: Stock is up 50% YTD as European bank stocks enjoy a rare boon. UniCredit has raised its stake in Commerzbank to 20% and signaled its interest in a possible takeover – investors will want to know more about this and its takeover of rival Banco BPM, which has been dealt a blow after an Italian court ruled UniCredit must exit Russia to complete the transaction.

Compass Group: Post-Covid return-to-normal winner, the contract food business Compass may see tailwinds from US payrolls continuing to surprise as 68% of group revenues are from the US. Last update saw management stick to annual guidance despite an 8.5% rise in organic turnover. It expects full-year high single-digit growth in underlying operating profits, supported by revenue increase 7.5%. Look for any shift in the guidance after this quarter now there is perhaps a little more visibility for the FY and on tariffs.

Often viewed as a defensive play, Coca-Cola faces questions about volume trends in emerging markets and the impact of FX headwinds. With an estimated EPS of $0.83 and revenue of $12.5 billion, the company’s pricing power and brand strength will be under the microscope. While not typically a big mover, implied volatility points to a modest 2.5% swing—enough to matter for a stock that forms the backbone of many long-term portfolios. Investors will also be tuned in to commentary on evolving consumer habits, particularly in North America and LATAM.

RTX Corp

The aerospace and defense conglomerate is in the midst of a multi-year transition. Investors will be focused on aerospace demand, progress on resolving its Pratt & Whitney engine issues, and updates on defense backlogs. With EPS forecast at $1.44 and sales just above $20 billion, the 3.8% expected move suggests a moderate degree of uncertainty heading into results. Any signs that commercial jet orders are accelerating—or that defense margins are being pressured—will likely shift investor sentiment quickly.

Texas Instruments

As one of the first major chipmakers to report, Texas Instruments will set the tone for the semiconductor space. Inventory corrections and weaker industrial demand have weighed on recent results, but any signs of stabilization could boost sentiment. Analysts expect EPS of $1.35 on $4.35 billion in revenue, with an expected move of around 5%. As TXN serves diverse end markets including automotive, industrial, and communications, its results are often seen as a leading indicator for the broader chip sector.

 Wednesday, July 23

- Eurozone: Consumer Confidence Flash.

- US: Existing Home Sales and MBA Mortgage data.

- US: EIA Crude Oil, Gasoline, Distillate, Heating Oil, and Refinery Stocks data.

- Canada: New Housing Price Index (MoM).

Earnings: Alphabet, Tesla, AT&T,

Thales: This European defense spending winner soared after Q1 results and is up around 80% YTD. Europe's largest defense electronics posted like-for-like adjusted operating income up 5.7% to €2.42 billion as revenues gained 8.3% to €20.58 billion in Q1. Investors looking for signs of continued order inflows and commentary around the German/French spending commitments, particularly after French President Macron said the country would increase military spending to €64bn by 2027, an additional €3.5 billion in 2026 and €3 billion in 2027 that will take the total to double the run rate of 2017.

Alphabet

Arguably the most anticipated report of the week, Alphabet’s earnings will be scrutinized for AI monetization, ad growth, and cloud profitability. The company is forecast to earn $2.42 per share on revenue approaching $79.70 billion. A 5.7% implied move shows the market is bracing for meaningful surprises—up or down. With the stock near record highs, any disappointment could trigger a sharp reassessment. AI-related capex is also under the spotlight, particularly how management positions the Gemini model suite in competition with peers.

Tesla

After a volatile first half of the year, Tesla’s upcoming report could be pivotal. With deliveries down and margins under pressure, investor patience may be wearing thin. Analysts expect just $0.42 per share in earnings, down sharply from a year ago, on $22.7 billion in sales. The market is pricing in a sizable 7.5% move. Whether CEO Elon Musk can reignite excitement with updates on Full Self-Driving or the long-promised Model 2 will be key. Watch also for commentary on China demand and U.S. EV tax credit dynamics.

IBM

In a market obsessed with growth and innovation, IBM has tried to redefine itself as a leader in hybrid cloud and AI infrastructure. Investors will be looking for signs that its turnaround is gaining traction, with EPS expected at $2.64 and revenue near $16.6 billion. The implied move of 6.5% signals the potential for an outsized reaction to even a modest surprise. Free cash flow guidance, AI-services bookings, and Red Hat performance will be top of mind for analysts.

 Thursday, July 24

- Global Flash PMIs (Germany, Eurozone, UK, US, France

- European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision and press conference

- Switzerland: SNB Chairman Schlegel Speech.

- UK: CBI Business Optimism Index, CBI Industrial Trends Orders.

- Turkey: Interest rate decision.

- Japan: Tokyo CPI and Core CPI updates.

- US: S&P Global Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMI Flash Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims, Fed Balance Sheet.

Earnings: American Airlines, Nokia, Nasdaq, Intel, Blackstone,honeywell

Roche: The Swiss drug giant reported 6% growth in group sales in Q1, driven by an 8% increase in pharmaceutical sales, though diagnostics was flat. The company stuck to its full-year guidance of mid-single-digit sales growth, despite a 5% negative impact from currency fluctuations. The key focus could be on Trump’s tariffs on pharmaceuticals, which he has threatened to introduce by 1 August. Roche said in the Q1 earnings call it was satisfied with mitigating tariffs, for example by shifting inventories. Investors will want further reassurances in the Q2 call – so far the stock has failed to recover much from its post Liberation Day lows.

Nestle: The world’s largest packaged foods group said the impact of US tariffs was "unclear" when it reported better-than-expected first-quarter organic sales growth. The firm, which at the same time hiked prices for its Kit-Kat chocolate bars and Nescafe coffee, maintained its 2025 outlook, expecting organic sales growth to improve operating profit margin of at least 16%. Investors will be searching for whether management can offer any fresh perspective on tariffs, and how it judges tailwinds from declining cocoa prices, which have halved since the start of the year.

Lloyds: Shares of the UK bank have risen about 40% so far this year and expectations are for continued growth in net interest income (NII), which rose 3% in Q1 to £3.29bn. Q1 saw net interest margins rise to 3.03% from 2.97%. Morgan Stanley forecasts this to tick up further to 3.06% and 2.1% QoQ growth in NII. About the same time as the results we are expecting a Supreme Court ruling on motor finance, which several analysts have said could be a positive catalyst for the stock and the broader bank sector in the UK.Investors will be happy to get clarity on this front as it could remove an overhang for the shares. Investors will also want to hear more about the £4bn investment plan to develop new revenue streams to make it less reliant on NII. Lloyds Q1 profits fell 7% to £1.5bn, in line with forecasts, due to increased provisions for bad loans and the expected impact of tariffs – look for signs that they are less worried than three months ago on those fronts.

Blackstone

The world’s largest alternative asset manager will offer a window into institutional demand, private credit momentum, and real estate performance. Investors are eager to see how fundraising and exits have trended amid a more favorable capital markets backdrop. With earnings of $1.09 per share expected and a 4.7% move implied, Blackstone’s results could have broader implications for financials. Also relevant: updates on retail flows into BREIT and performance of recent private-equity exits.

Honeywell

Often seen as a proxy for the broader industrial economy, Honeywell’s report will speak volumes about supply chains, automation demand, and aerospace aftermarkets. EPS is forecast at $2.66 on $10 billion in revenue, with a 3.6% expected move. Any revision to full-year guidance will be closely watched. Look for signals on warehouse automation, building technologies, and whether aerospace continues to offset softness in other segments.

Intel

Closing out our top ten is Intel, a company still fighting to regain relevance in a rapidly evolving chip landscape. Investors will want updates on its foundry ambitions, government subsidies, and competitive positioning. The bar is low—just $0.02 in expected EPS on $12 billion in revenue—but the stakes are high. The options market is bracing for an 8.1% move, the largest on this list. Commentary on Arrow Lake timing, gross margin trajectory, and traction with AI workloads will be critical.

Friday, July 25

- UK: Retail Sales

- Germany: Ifo Business Climate, Current Conditions, Expectations.

- Eurozone: ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters.

- Italy: Business and Consumer Confidence.

- Eurozone: Loans to Companies/Households, M3 Money Supply.

- US: Durable Goods Orders

- US: Baker Hughes Oil and Total Rig Count.