Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew July 2 2021

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Good Morning

Waiting for the Nonfarm and the long US Weekend

All eyes are on the nonfarm payroll at 14:30 today with expected 700k and an unemployment rate of 5.7%. A strong number would make a hawkish stance by the Fed more likely. Also As Monday is a market holiday in the US as the 4th of July is on Sunday, we could see some profit taking of position reductions ahead of the weekend. In the afternoon we expect the outcome of the delayed Opec + meeting.

Equities are overall friendly with the Futures on  Dax at 15608 the Dow at 34545, the S&P at 4311 and the Nasdaq 100 at 14518.

The USD Index fell briefly yesterday but quickly recovered to 92.54, 10 year rates remain at 1.46 and Bitcoin retreated to 32800.

EURUSD is at 1.1840, near the lower end of the recent range, GBPUSD at 1.3760 and Gold and Silver at 1776 and 26.03.

The overall reaction after the Non-Farms will be interesting. After the last Fed meeting,  the movement in FX was driven by rates while equity traders locked in on the QE and therefore the reaction was not in line.

Trade carefully and consider optionality if you are looking to take a bet on the numbers, Volatility remains cheap.

Headlines:

130 Countries back the 15% minimum corporate Tax.

The US stated that the Chinese nuclear arsenal was becoming concerning.

Robin Hood is looking for at USD 40 Bio valuation in the IPO

Local Start Date

Local Time

Country/Region

Indicator Name

Period

Reuters Poll

Unit

2 Jul 2021

14:00

Brazil

Industrial Output MM

May

1.7%

Percent

2 Jul 2021

14:00

Brazil

Industrial Output YY

May

25.0%

Percent

2 Jul 2021

14:30

United States

Non-Farm Payrolls

Jun

700k

Person

2 Jul 2021

14:30

United States

Unemployment Rate

Jun

5.7%

Percent

2 Jul 2021

14:30

United States

Average Earnings YY

Jun

3.6%

Percent

2 Jul 2021

14:30

United States

International Trade $

May

-71.4B

USD

2 Jul 2021

14:30

Canada

Trade Balance C$

May

0.37B

CAD

2 Jul 2021

15:30

Canada

Markit Mfg PMI SA

Jun

Index (diffusion)

2 Jul 2021

16:00

United States

Factory Orders MM

May

1.6%

Percent

5 Jul 2021

02:30

Japan

Services PMI

Jun

Index (diffusion)

5 Jul 2021

03:30

Australia

Building Approvals

May

Percent

5 Jul 2021

03:30

Australia

Retail Sales MM Final

May

Percent

5 Jul 2021

03:45

China (Mainland)

Caixin Services PMI

Jun

Index (diffusion)

5 Jul 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

Reserve Assets Total

Jun

USD

5 Jul 2021

09:00

Turkey

CPI MM

Jun

Percent

5 Jul 2021

09:50

France

Markit Serv PMI

Jun

Index (diffusion)

5 Jul 2021

09:50

France

Markit Comp PMI

Jun

Index (diffusion)

5 Jul 2021

09:55

Germany

Markit Services PMI

Jun

Index (diffusion)

5 Jul 2021

09:55

Germany

Markit Comp Final PMI

Jun

Index (diffusion)

5 Jul 2021

10:00

Euro Zone

Markit Serv Final PMI

Jun

Index (diffusion)

5 Jul 2021

10:00

Euro Zone

Markit Comp Final PMI

Jun

Index (diffusion)

5 Jul 2021

15:00

Brazil

Markit Services PMI

Jun

Index (diffusion)

5 Jul 2021

15:00

Brazil

Markit Composite PMI

Jun

Index (diffusion)

6 Jul 2021

06:30

Australia

RBA Cash Rate

Jul

0.10%

Percent

6 Jul 2021

08:00

Germany

Industrial Orders MM

May

Percent

6 Jul 2021

11:00

Germany

ZEW Economic Sentiment

Jul

Net balance

6 Jul 2021

11:00

Germany

ZEW Current Conditions

Jul

Net balance

6 Jul 2021

14:00

New Zealand

Milk Auctions

6 Jul, w/e

USD

6 Jul 2021

15:45

United States

Markit Comp Final PMI

Jun

Index (diffusion)

6 Jul 2021

15:45

United States

Markit Svcs PMI Final

Jun

Index (diffusion)

6 Jul 2021

16:00

United States

ISM N-Mfg PMI

Jun

63.0

Index

7 Jul 2021

05:00

New Zealand

Reserve Assets Total

Jun

NZD

7 Jul 2021

08:00

Germany

Industrial Output MM

May

Percent

7 Jul 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

Halifax House Prices MM

Jun

Percent

7 Jul 2021

08:00

Norway

Reserve Assets Total

Jun

NOK

7 Jul 2021

08:45

France

Reserve Assets Total

Jun

EUR

7 Jul 2021

09:00

Switzerland

Forex Reserves CHF

Jun

CHF

7 Jul 2021

14:00

Brazil

Retail Sales YY

May

Percent

(Refinitiv)


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