Morning Brew July 15 2025

Good morning,

After several records, we are taking a breather ahead of key market events for Q3:

• Earning season starts with the big financials
• The US CPI will give hints on the tariff impact and define the path of the Fed going forward. The CPI is expected at 2.7% and the Core at 3%.
• Trump changes his stance on Russia, threatening 100% tariffs on countries trading oil with Russia in 50 days and delivering weapons to Ukraine. As usual, aggressive foreign policy measures are announced when he and his team are under internal pressure – this distracts from the failure to handle the Texas flood and the renewed discussions around the Epstein files.
• Yields are on the rise again, the Japanese 30 year is trading at the highest level this millenium, the US 10 Year is approaching the 4.50 again, the 30s the 5%. EU 30s are at 3.26, the highest since 2011

As we speak, the US500 is 6288, within reach of a new all time high, the US Tech 100 is testing the 23k as we speak and the GER 40 is 400 points off the highs after the tariff announcement at 24250.

Silver hit 14 year highs yesterday before finding sellers, we are now at 38.30, 28% year to date. Gold is 3370 putting the Gold/Silver ratio to 87.70 after hitting almost 110 3 months ago.

The USD Index is 97.65 with EURUSD 1.1680, GBPUSD 1.3440 and USDJPY 147.60.

Crypto receded off the records we hit yesterday, and the question is the same as in many assets: Is it a break of a reversal?

Markets seem a little complacent given the stretched valuations and political and economic risks ahead, trade cautiously and consider options instead of new risks and to protect yourself.

Tuesday, July 15

- Australia: Westpac Consumer Confidence

- China: GDP (Q2), Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Fixed Asset Investment, Unemployment Rate, House Price Index

- Indonesia: Trade

- India: Trade

- Spain: Inflation

- Eurozone: Industrial Production (May), ZEW Economic Sentiment Index

- Germany: ZEW Economic Sentiment Index

- Canada: Inflation

- United States: Consumer Price Index (CPI, June), NY Empire State Manufacturing Index

Earnings:
JP Morgan, Citi, Wells Fargo, Blackrock,  Statestreet, BNY,

Wednesday, July 16

- EU Trade Balance

- United Kingdom: Inflation (CPI,

- United States: Producer Price Index

Earnings: ASML, Bank of America, Goldman Saaxchs, Johnson&Johnson, Morgan Stanley, United, Alcoa, KinderMorgan,

Thursday, July 17

- Australia: Labor Market Data
- EU Inflation

- United Kingdom: Labor Market Data

- United States: Retail Sales Data (June)

Earnings: TSMC, Pepsi, US Bancorp, Abott, Novartis, Netflix, Interactive,

Friday, July 18

- Japan CPI

- United States: Preliminary Consumer Confidence Index

Earnings: Huntington, 3M American Express, Charles Schwab,