Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: USD gives up ground on Dove Powell, Equities stable
Good Morning,
Jerome Powell's testimony was more dovish than FX traders had feared but not as dovish as equity traders had hoped. He basically kept his stance on the transitory inflation : "The high inflation readings are for a small group of goods and services directly tied to the reopening" he also hinted at measures in the next 6 months.
US Indexes close mixed with the Dow and the S&P can rise moderately, the NASDAQ gives up a little ground. Apple rises on hints at strong IPhone demand, Wells Fargo and Citi could beat expectations in their earnings reports, Citi falls 0.3% Wells Fargo jumps 4%.
The USD Index dropped to 92.35 with EURUSD off support along with Cable Gold and Silver. EURUSD could gain to 1.1842, GBPUSD at 1.3850. Gold 1830 and Silver 26.35. Bitcoin seems stuck in a tightening range, currently at 32600. Acc to a Reuters report, Saudi Arabia and the UAE could agree on a compromise, oil receded 1%.
Dax remains near 15800 and needs to break that level for a run to 16200 initially. It might be we need the next ECB meeting to decide a clear direction. Daimler just reported better than expected earnings. The SMI remains above 12000 but seems to also need help to move ahead.
Overnight, Chinese data slightly disappointed versus the official estimates, but after recent data points this was expected and loosening monetary policy is seen as compensating sufficiently.
The U.S. Senate banned the import of products from China's Xinjiang region in an effort to put pressure on China to respect human rights in the area.
Today, watch for the earning releases, initial jobless claims and the continuation of the Powell testimony at 15:30 CET.
Todays Earning reports:
Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken, Fast Retailing, Bank of New York Mellon, Morgan Stanley, UnitedHealth Group, US Bancorp, Truist Financial, Progressive Corp and Cintas Corp
Please remember that CLQ1 will expire on 20th July at 15:00 GMT
Local Start Date | Local Time | Country/Region | Indicator Name | Period | Reuters Poll |
15 Jul 2021 | 03:00 | South Korea | Bank of Korea Base Rate | Jul | |
15 Jul 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Employment | Jun | 30.0k |
15 Jul 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Unemployment Rate | Jun | 5.0% |
15 Jul 2021 | 04:00 | China (Mainland) | Urban Investment (YTD)YY | Jun | 12.1% |
15 Jul 2021 | 04:00 | China (Mainland) | Industrial Output YY | Jun | 7.8% |
15 Jul 2021 | 04:00 | China (Mainland) | Retail Sales YY | Jun | 11.0% |
15 Jul 2021 | 04:00 | China (Mainland) | GDP YY | Q2 | 8.1% |
15 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Claimant Count Unem Chng | Jun | |
15 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | ILO Unemployment Rate | May | 4.7% |
15 Jul 2021 | 10:00 | Italy | CPI (EU Norm) Final MM | Jun | 0.2% |
15 Jul 2021 | 10:00 | Italy | CPI (EU Norm) Final YY | Jun | 1.3% |
15 Jul 2021 | 12:00 | Euro Zone | Reserve Assets Total | Jun | |
15 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Initial Jobless Clm | 10 Jul, w/e | 360k |
15 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Philly Fed Business Indx | Jul | 28.3 |
15 Jul 2021 | 15:15 | United States | Industrial Production MM | Jun | 0.7% |
16 Jul 2021 | 00:45 | New Zealand | CPI QQ | Q2 | |
16 Jul 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | HICP Final MM | Jun | 0.3% |
16 Jul 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | HICP Final YY | Jun | 1.9% |
16 Jul 2021 | 14:15 | Canada | House Starts, Annualized | Jun | 270.0k |
16 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Retail Sales MM | Jun | |
16 Jul 2021 | 16:00 | United States | U Mich Sentiment Prelim | Jul | 86.5 |
16 Jul 2021 | Japan | JP BOJ Rate Decision | 16 Jul | -0.10% |
AI: The good, the bad, and the bubble
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Steen Jakobsen,
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As China navigates global fragmentation, its cycle of technology application, productivity enhancement, and growth is threatened by US breakthroughs in generative AI, limited computing power, and geopolitical tensions.
Redmond Wong,
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Japan’s expertise in semiconductors and robotic integration could be the foundation of AI dominance. Combining two of this year's themes, Japanese equities and artificial intelligence, brings a wave of opportunities.
Charu Chanana,
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The AI fever has turned the technology into a darling, pushing crypto further into no-man’s-land. There are striking similarities between AI and crypto, and if these are to come full circle, AI won't be spared for bubbles.
Mads Eberhardt,
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Stocks related to artificial intelligence (AI) have appeared on investors' radars. Expectations are high, but it may be necessary to consider how to get exposure to AI in a diversified way.
Hans Oudshoorn,
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John J. Hardy,
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While commodities, broadly speaking, have faced some tough months, a partial reversal during June could signal that the asset class is getting back on its feet with energy holding up and precious metals with upside potential.
Ole S. Hansen,
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Althea Spinozzi,
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