Morning Brew July 14 2022
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Testing Parity
Key News is that after the elevated US CPI number yesterday at 9.1% vs 8.8% expected, the Fed is now expected to hike a full percentage point on July 27. The probability calculated on the interest rate futures is 54%. The ECB next week is only seen to go with 0.3% with 95% probability. The 9.1% is the highest reported number since 1981.
Todays US PP at 14:30 will give the next confirmation.
The spread between the 2 and the 10 year yield rose to the highest level since 2000 raising worries about inflation. Markets seems to have expected a high CPI number as they have taken it in stride, US indexes all fell less than 1%. The USD Index gains 0.5% to trade at 108.45 and EURUSD at 1.0015, GBPUSD at 1.1835 and USDJPY at 138.56. Gold and Silver are at 1725 and 19.05, having defended key levels . Bitcoin is just above the 20k level.
The key item on the agenda today is if EURUSD breaks below parity. On Tuesday we saw a lot of defense at that level and there could be a large number of orders below the level, if broken. It would be an interesting coincidence if parity was broken on the French National Holiday.
Italy’s government risks break as coalition party ready to quit, raising prospect of early elections.
The Bank of Canada later surprised s with a percentage-point rate hike yesterday, during the night, the Singaporean and the Philippine central banks hiked surprisingly.
Delta fell 4.5% on missing earnings yesterday.
We are entering earning season in earnest today, with JPMorgan Chase & Co and Morgan Stanley are delivering results, followed by Citigroup and Wells Fargo tomorrow.
Hindenburg research took a long position in Twitter, pulling the price up by 8% with their announcement.
Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations are negotiating a deal to allow grain exports, but have not yet reached an agreement.
- Thursday 14 July: Fast Retailing, Ericsson, SEB, EQT, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Cintas
- Friday 15 July: Investor, Sandvik, EMS-Chemie, UnitedHealth, Wells Fargo, Charles Schwab, BlackRock, Citigroup, Progressive, US Bancorp, PNC Financial Services
- Monday 18 July: Bank of America, IBM, Goldman Sachs, Nordea
- Tuesday 19 July: Johnson & Johnson, Novartis, Lockheed Martin, Netflix, Atlas Copco, Volvo, Halliburton, Assa Abloy, Hasbro, Yara International
- Wednesday 20 July: Tesla, Abbott Laboratories, ASML, CSX, Nidex, Biogen, Baker Hughes, Kone, Volvo Car, Aker, Dassault Aviation, United Airlines, ASM International, Alfa Laval
- Thursday 21 July: Roche, Danaher, AT&T, Blackstone, SAP, Intuitive Surgical, ABB, Freeport-McMoRan, Kinder Morgan, Nucor, DR Horton, Nokia, Essity, Seagate Technology, MarketAxess
- Friday 22 July: Verizon, NextEra Energy, American Express, Schlumberger, Twitter, Danske Bank, Norsk Hydro
- Monday 25 July: NXP Semiconductors, Kuehne + Nagel, Philips, Ryanair
- Tuesday 26 July: Alphabet, Visa, LVMH, Coca-Cola, McDonald’s, UPS, Texas Instruments, Raytheon Technologies, Unilever, Christian Dior, General Electric, UBS Group, General Motors, Archer-Daniels-Midland, Southern Copper, DSV, UniCredit
- Wednesday 27 July: Microsoft, Meta, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Qualcomm, AMD, Equinor, GSK, ServiceNow, Rio Tinto, Mondelez, Boeing, Airbus, 3M, Kering, Humana, Mercedes-Benz, Ford Motor, Kraft Heinz, Shopify, BASF, Danone, Fanucm Enphase Energy, Spotify, Garmin
- Thursday 28 July: Apple, Nestle, Pfizer, Merck, L’Oreal, Shell, Comcast, Intel, Linde, TotalEnergies, Sanofi, Honeywell, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Keyence, Volkswagen, Air Liquide, Schneider Electric, Banco Santander, Valero Energy, Stellantis, Neste, BAE Systems, Arcelor Mittal
- Friday 29 July: Amazon, Exxon Mobil, P&G, Mastercard, Chevron, AbbVie, AstraZeneca, Sony, Caterpillar, Colgate-Palmolive, BNP Paribas, Twilio, Pinterest
- Physically Settled Futures:
- CLQ2 will expire on 20th July at 15:00 GMT.
- ECOQ2 will expire on 21st July at 09:00 GMT.
- NGQ2 will expire on 26th July at 19:30 GMT.
- TTFMQ2 will expire on 27th July at 09:00 GMT.
- STFQ2 will expire on 28th July at 02:00 GMT.
- EMAQ2 will expire on 28th July at 09:00 GMT.
- GCQ2, MGCQ2, XKQ2, ZLQ2, ZMQ2, ZSQ2 will expire 28th July at 15:00 GMT.
- Expiring CFDs:
- OILUSAUG22 will expire 18th July at 15:00 GMT.
- NATGASUSAUG22 will expire 25th July at 15:00 GMT.
- OILUKSEP22 will expire 29th July at 15:00 GMT.
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