Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Chief Macro Strategist
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Last slow day of the week?
Good morning,
Jerome Powell's Speech yesterday failed to excite markets; he stressed the need for good data on the one hand while pointing out inflation was not the only risk facing the FED. He also stated that the U.S. was "no longer an overheated economy" with a job market that has "cooled considerably".
The Nasdaq and the S&P reached new all-time highs while the Dow again fell slightly. Main driver behind the rise was again tech as Nvidia rose 2.5%, Tesla 3.7% and Banks could rise ahead of Fridays earnings. Jeff Bezos joined the ranks of tech billionaires selling shares, he disposed of Amazon shares almost of USD 900 million.
Rates as FX traders interpreted Powell as slightly hawkish, 10 year yields rose to 4.30 and the USD Index to 105.12 with EURUSD 1.0815, GBPUSD 1.2788, USDJPY 161.46, Gold and Silver are at 2368 and 30.75. Gold is at a technically interesting level. ETH and Bitcoin are stronger again
China reported it`s CPI and PPI over night, the CPI came lower than expected, the PPI in line, failing to provide real inspiration.
Joe Biden was fairly forceful at the NATO Summit where he tries to demonstrate he can still lead, stating he will continue to provide support to Ukraine.
Koen Hoorelbeke and Peter Siks explore the benefits and considerations of buying plain shares versus combining shares with selling options premiums. This episode is a must-listen for traders looking to enhance their investment strategies by leveraging the advantages of both shares and options.
Koen also looked at Nike: Nike has long been a cornerstone of successful investment portfolios, renowned for its iconic brand, innovative products, and robust financial performance. As the market continually evolves, investors are increasingly looking for sophisticated strategies to enhance their returns and manage risk. Options trading, with its flexibility and potential for leverage, offers a dynamic approach to investing in Nike.
Today we are looking at the second half of Jerome Powell`s testimony, but the day is quiet in terms of data. Overall risk sentiment and US debt auctions could provide inspiration - if not we could see a calm day ahead of tomorrow busier day with the German and US inflation data, the UK GDP and the earning season kickoff.
Wednesday
- Data China CPI & PPI Powell continues his semi annual testimony
Thursday
- Data DE HICP UK GDP, US CPI & Initial Jobless Claims, Cook & Bostic speak
- Earnings: DNB Delta Airlines, Pepsi Cola
Friday
- Data Sweden & France CPI US PPI & University of Michigan Sentiment
- Earnings: Bank of New York Mellon, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan Chace