Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Hopes on China starting into 23
Good Morning and a Happy New Year
Let us hope for a better 2023 than 2022. We are starting the year on the expectation that we are heading into a recession and central banks will lower rates at one point. For the US this is seen to happen in June/July. Currently the peak rate is being traded at 4.95% in June and by year end, the expectation is at 4.55%
The ECB is expected to peak in September at 3.47 and to end the year at 3.27. 10 Year rates are at 3.82 for the US and the EU at 2.46.
While we are starting the year quite friendly, the technical setup still looks challenging for equities as our Kim Cramer Larsson points out in his technical outlook: S&P 500 is looking at 3,200, Nasdaq 100 below 10K, DAX 11,450, , FTSE 100 Range bound and Hang Seng towards 11K.
The USD Index is trading below 104 at 103.69 and the Yen is trading below 130 against the USD again for the first time in 7 Months, EURUSD is 1.0650 and Cable 1.2060. Gold and Silver surged 1841 and to 24.40. Oil broke above 80 USD.
At the moment all eyes are on China where the PMI remained below 50 but came higher than expected and the big question is if the stimulus provided by the reopening of the society outweighs the impact of corona infections.
In Terms of economic data we are expecting international producer and consumer price indexes: Switzerland at 9:30, Germany 14:00, Canada 15:30 and the US at 15:45.
Tomorrow will be dominated by PMI releases through the day, and the highlight of the week likely to be the Fed minutes Wednesday
Liquidity is still low and sharp moves not unlikely, trade accordingly and safely.
A new fragmented world order can render some of today's infrastructure obselete, but it also calls for massive new investments across the globe, which requires a new set of strategic and tactical investment strategies.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
As globalisation turns to fragmentation, China seems set on playing a role in the global economy, while simultaneously working towards proofing its own economic situation from external shocks and crises.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
The recent bank runs and ensuing challenges are reminicent of something we've seen before. Will it end like the S&L crises of 1986 and 1995?
Chris Dembik,
Head of Macroeconomic Research
Equity markets need to recalibrate to another - fragmented - global world. What's your view on equities in this market - are they going up or down?
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
With every development comes new opportunites, some of which could be in India. Have you considered the country as a part of your diversification strategy?
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
A collar is an option strategy that allows some protection while maintaining some upside potential. What investment would you like to use a collar strategy for?
Hans Oudshoorn,
Trainer Academy
There are arguments to be made for many commodities to have upside. Which are you paying the most attention to this quarter?
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
In a very challenging macro environment, which currencies do you think will come out on top?
John J. Hardy,
Head of FX Strategy