Morning Brew January 23 2026

Good morning,

Markets reacted positively to President Trump’s latest signals of appeasement. The Nasdaq 100 and Dow each rose 0.7%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.6%. Equities rebounded after President Trump withdrew his new tariff threats against Europe and indicated progress toward a Greenland framework agreement.

Mega-cap tech drove the rally, with Meta +5.7%, Tesla +4.2%, Microsoft +1.5%, Amazon +1.3%, and modest gains from Alphabet, Nvidia, and Apple.
GE fell 7.4% despite strong earnings, whereas Procter & Gamble rose 2.7% despite softer revenue.
Intel warned it cannot keep up with demand for server chips used in AI data centers and issued a weaker revenue and profit outlook—sending the stock down 13%.

President Trump is also suing JP Morgan and Jamie Dimon for USD 5bn, alleging politically motivated "debanking."

Europe posted broad gains, though defense stocks lagged as Greenland-related tensions eased. In Amsterdam, attention turns to the expected €25bn IPO of Czechoslovak Group, which would mark the largest-ever listing of an arms manufacturer, according to Reuters.

The USD Index fell to 98.34 as yields remained calm (US 10-year at 4.24%).
FX levels: EURUSD 1.1750, GBPUSD 1.3494, USDJPY 158.60.
Bitcoin trades around 89,500.

Precious metals remain the standout story: Silver is testing 99, Gold approaches 5,000, and Platinum sits at 2,650. Whether Silver hits 100 or Gold reaches 5,000 first is anyone’s guess—but the key question is whether the next move is a blow-off top or a consolidation phase. Ole’s thoughts here will be particularly interesting.

The Bank of Japan held rates steady but signaled hawkish intent, priming markets for future hikes.

Other headlines:

• TikTok agreed to a new U.S. joint-venture structure to avoid a nationwide ban.
• Former U.S. prosecutor Smith stated that Trump “willfully broke” laws in his attempt to remain in power.
• China is reportedly targeting 4.5%–5.0% economic growth for 2026.
• The U.S. economy grew 4.4% annualized in Q3 2025, above the initial 4.3% estimate—its strongest reading since Q3 2023.
• After meetings involving Putin, Wittkof, and Kushner, peace talks for Ukraine are once again on the table.

Energy markets deserve close attention. As Ole highlighted, extreme cold across the northern hemisphere has sharply lifted heating demand at a time of limited supply flexibility:

• In the U.S., the deep freeze has increased “freeze-off” risks in southern production regions, triggering outsized price reactions.
• In Europe, colder weather and robust demand are forcing buyers to compete aggressively with Asia for LNG cargoes.
• Energy equities with gas exposure have outperformed, and the Norwegian krone has benefited from higher European gas prices.

Koen addresses a luxury problem, but an important one: Calmer markets, unresolved risks: how investors can think about protecting gains

• This article is for investors who have built meaningful gains and want to reduce the risk of giving them back, without trying to time the market or selling everything.
• Markets have calmed after recent events, but uncertainty remains. that combination often creates a practical window to think about protection.
• Options, when used carefully, can help investors define downside for a period of time, turning an uncomfortable risk into a conscious decision.

Calmer markets unresolved risks - how invest

Today`s agenda is relatively thin unless there is a massive surprise in one of the PMI turns to be a massive surprise. Overall, is the global complacency justified? Next week we expect key earnings and key data, maybe we learn more.

Trade safely

Friday January 23

Data BoJ, UK Retail Sales International PMI; University of Michigan

Earnings Ericsson

Speakers:  WEF in Davos

Monday January 26

Data Germany IFO, US Durable Goods,