Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Nasdaq in correction, Precious metals shine
Good Morning
Nasdaq is now officially in correction territory after indexes give up more ground, the Dow closes - 0.96%, the S&P -0.97% and the Nasdaq -1.15%. Tesla is again below 1000. It is the 66th correction of the Nasdaq ever and officially starts when the index is 10% off the high.
China cut key rates over night, turning Indexes higher by app. 0.5%.
US Yields remain high with the 2 year above 1% at 1.07, the 10 Years at 1.86. The German 10 year breached the 0 yesterday but fell back below, currently -0.005. If we rise, 0.05 and 0.1 are resistances.
Oil hovers near the 2014 highs as supply remains a worry.
The USD Index is trading at 95.53, EURUSD is back in the 1.12/1.14 range after the breakout higher failed on higher US Yields, GBPUSD 1.3625 and Oil currencies such as CAD remain strong.
Precious Metals rallied and pulled miners with it, Platinum rose as much as 6.3% yesterday, back above the 1000 to trade at 1030 now. Gold took the initial crucial step for all fans of the metal and breached the 1835. 1860/70 are the important level ahead of the 1900/10. Silver breached the 24 and is struggling with 24.20. 24.50 and 25 are the next levels. Watch that the trade does not get too crowded.
The Turkish Lira will be interesting to watch today at noon, the rate decision is scheduled today and the market is expecting a hike by 25 basis points with a probability of 100% acc. to Refinitiv. Currently we are at 13.50 against the USD. Remember the Margin Change in the Lira tomorrow.
President Joe Biden failed again to push through his voting right change, further weakening his standing.
Top Earnings today are Netflix, and American Airlines,
Economic events are German PPI at 8:00 Austria CPI at 9:00, EU at 11:00, the Norwegian Rate decision at 10, US Employment data as well as the the Philly Fed at 14:30, Existing Home Sales at 16:00.
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures:
CLG2 will expire 20th January 2022 at 16:00 GMT.
ECOG2 will expire 23th January 2022 at 10:00 GMT.
NGG2G2 will expire 27th January 2022 at 10:00 GMT.
GCG2, MGCG2 will expire 28th January 2022 at 16:00 GMT.
Expiring CFDs:
NATGASUSFEB22 will expire 25th January 2022 at 16:00 GMT.
INDIA50JAN22 & TAIWAN95JAN22 will expire 27th January 2022 at 02:00 GMT.
GASOLINEUSFEB22, GOLDFEB22 & HEATINGOILFEB22 will expire 27th January 2022 at 16:00 GMT.
CHINA50JAN22, HK50JAN22 & SINGAPOREJAN22 will expire 28th January 2022 at 02:00 GMT.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.