Morning Brew January 20 2022
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Nasdaq in correction, Precious metals shine
Nasdaq is now officially in correction territory after indexes give up more ground, the Dow closes - 0.96%, the S&P -0.97% and the Nasdaq -1.15%. Tesla is again below 1000. It is the 66th correction of the Nasdaq ever and officially starts when the index is 10% off the high.
China cut key rates over night, turning Indexes higher by app. 0.5%.
US Yields remain high with the 2 year above 1% at 1.07, the 10 Years at 1.86. The German 10 year breached the 0 yesterday but fell back below, currently -0.005. If we rise, 0.05 and 0.1 are resistances.
Oil hovers near the 2014 highs as supply remains a worry.
The USD Index is trading at 95.53, EURUSD is back in the 1.12/1.14 range after the breakout higher failed on higher US Yields, GBPUSD 1.3625 and Oil currencies such as CAD remain strong.
Precious Metals rallied and pulled miners with it, Platinum rose as much as 6.3% yesterday, back above the 1000 to trade at 1030 now. Gold took the initial crucial step for all fans of the metal and breached the 1835. 1860/70 are the important level ahead of the 1900/10. Silver breached the 24 and is struggling with 24.20. 24.50 and 25 are the next levels. Watch that the trade does not get too crowded.
The Turkish Lira will be interesting to watch today at noon, the rate decision is scheduled today and the market is expecting a hike by 25 basis points with a probability of 100% acc. to Refinitiv. Currently we are at 13.50 against the USD. Remember the Margin Change in the Lira tomorrow.
President Joe Biden failed again to push through his voting right change, further weakening his standing.
Top Earnings today are Netflix, and American Airlines,
Economic events are German PPI at 8:00 Austria CPI at 9:00, EU at 11:00, the Norwegian Rate decision at 10, US Employment data as well as the the Philly Fed at 14:30, Existing Home Sales at 16:00.
Physically Settled Futures:
CLG2 will expire 20th January 2022 at 16:00 GMT.
ECOG2 will expire 23th January 2022 at 10:00 GMT.
NGG2G2 will expire 27th January 2022 at 10:00 GMT.
GCG2, MGCG2 will expire 28th January 2022 at 16:00 GMT.
NATGASUSFEB22 will expire 25th January 2022 at 16:00 GMT.
INDIA50JAN22 & TAIWAN95JAN22 will expire 27th January 2022 at 02:00 GMT.
GASOLINEUSFEB22, GOLDFEB22 & HEATINGOILFEB22 will expire 27th January 2022 at 16:00 GMT.
CHINA50JAN22, HK50JAN22 & SINGAPOREJAN22 will expire 28th January 2022 at 02:00 GMT.
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.