Morning Brew January 2025

Good Morning,
A global bond selloff caused high yields and US curbs on AI related chip Sales to China initially weighed on sentiment yesterday.  In the end, the S&P and the Dow could close in the green while the Nasdaq closed 0.4% lower. Nvidia lost 2%, the traded volume was at the 20 day average with 15 billion shares traded. 

Overnight, US 10 year Yields receded a little to 4.75 allowing the USD Index to fall to 109.52. The German EU and Japanese Yields remain near the highs, the Japanese at the highest since 2011, the EU at the highest since last June.

EURUSD is trading at 1.0245, GBPUSD 1.22 and USDJPY 157.55.- Statements from Japan we may see a hike in January boosts the Yen. Bitcoin stabilized to 95k and has so far avoided confirming a Shoulder Head Shoulder formation that would be a bad technical signal. Gold and Silver traded weaker yesterday, Gold is now at 2668 and Silver 29.65.

There are reports Byte dance is considering the sale of TikTok to Elon Musk

Hopes for a truce between Hamas and Israel are rising, the Biden administration seems desperate to achieve that ahead of the Trump inauguration so Biden and not Trump can claim the credit.

Today the key will be the sentiment in Bond markets – will the selloff continue or will we see a stabilization?

Ther is little to expect in terms of economic data ahead of the US CPI tomorrow but the middle east, Team Trump and the Biden Administration are worth watching.

Trade safely!!

Tuesday
- Data Japan Current Account, US PPI
- Schmidt and Williams speak
Wednesday
- Data Japan Tankan, UK , Sweden, France and US CPI.
- Fed Barkin speaks, Feds Beige Book.
- Earnings: JP Morgan, Citi, Wells Fargo, Blackrock, BNY, Goldman Sachs,
Thursday
- Data AU Employment Data, Germany Inflation, UK GDP, IT CPI. Initial Jobless claims, Retail Sales, Filly Fed
- Earnings: tsmc, MBank of America. US Bancorp,
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Friday
- Data China Retail Sales, GDP. EU Harmonized Inflation US Industrial Production,
- Statestreet

Physically Settled Futures

USF5 will expire on 13-Jan at 0600 UTC
GIF5 will expire on 16-Jan at 1940 UTC
AEXF5 will expire on 17-Jan at 1500 UTC
FCEF5 will expire on 17-Jan at 1500 UTC
MCAF5 will expire on 17-Jan at 0700 UTC
OBFF5 will expire on 17-Jan at 1500 UTC
MFXIF5 will expire on 17-Jan at 1545 UTC
MFMIF5 will expire on 17-Jan at 1545 UTC
OMXC25F5 will expire on 17-Jan at 1555 UTC
OMXF5 will expire on 17-Jan at 1625 UTC
WBSG5 will expire on 17-Jan at 1930 UTC
MCLG5 will expire on 17-Jan at 1930 UTC
QMG5 will expire on 17-Jan at 1930 UTC
KUF5 will expire on 20-Jan at 0600 UTC
CLG5 will expire on 21-Jan at 1600 UTC
VXF5 will expire on 22-Jan at 1400 UTC
VXMF5 will expire on 22-Jan at 1400 UTC
FVSF5 will expire on 22-Jan at 1100 UTC
TWNF5 will expire on 23-Jan at 0550 UTC
ECOG5 will expire on 24-Jan at 1000 UTC