Morning Brew January 13 2026

Good morning,

Our quarterly outlooks are now available, with separate editions for traders and investors — and a reminder that every trader is also an investor.

Investors:
“The challenge in Q1 2026 isn’t predicting the future of AI — it’s preparing portfolios for every version of it.”

Traders:
Q1 Outlook for Traders: Five Big Questions and Three Grey Swans.

Q4 2025 saw the term “K‑shaped economy” go viral — an apt description of how lower‑income households in the US continue to struggle with rising living costs and debt servicing, while the wealthiest 10% drive up to half of all consumption. This divergence is a classic wealth‑effect dynamic, amplified by three consecutive years of exceptional equity market returns.

Koen has compiled the first Market Compass of 2026

Earnings Season 2026 Kicks Off: Banks Set the Tone, AI Sends the Bill

US equities rebounded on Monday, with both the Dow and the S&P 500 closing at new record highs after an early sell‑off. The S&P 500 gained 0.2% and the Nasdaq rose 0.3%, led by tech and Walmart. The Dow recovered 86 points after being down nearly 500.

Markets initially fell on news of a DOJ criminal probe into Fed Chair Powell — which President Trump labelled a “pretext” for pushing rate cuts. Bank stocks weakened as Trump proposed a temporary 10% cap on credit‑card interest rates, sending Capital One down 7% and Citigroup down 3%.

After hours, Alphabet’s Google announced a multi‑year deal with Apple to power Apple’s AI — including Siri — with Gemini.

The S&P 500 is now within a hair’s breadth of the key 7000 level.

In Japan, Bank lending grew 4.4% YoY in December — the fastest since April 2021 — helping the Nikkei hit record levels.  In Europe: The DAX holds firmly above 25,000.

Rates & FX: Yields remain steady at 4.19%, USD Index: 99 EURUSD: 1.1660 USDJPY: approaching  159 GBPUSD: 1.3470

Metals: Gold, silver, and platinum extended gains yesterday before easing slightly:

• Gold: 4,585
• Silver: 84.80
• Platinum: 2,300

In our quarterly outlook, John notes:

“We see no reason for a meaningful reversal in metals prices in the coming year, as the drivers behind higher precious and select industrial metals appear structural.”

Gold in particular continues to shift from a cyclical macro trade to a strategic asset, supported by:

• persistent central bank demand
• growing fiscal‑policy and financial‑repression risks
• geopolitical fragmentation
• diminishing sensitivity to traditional macro drivers like yields and USD strength

Headlines

• The Trump administration’s criminal investigation of Fed Chair Jerome Powell sparked condemnation from former Fed officials and criticism across the Republican Party.
• UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti will step down in April 2027 after completing the Credit Suisse integration acc to the Financial Times
• President Trump warned that any country doing business with Iran will face a 25% tariff on all trade with the US.

Earnings: JP Morgan, Delta, BNY,
Central Bankers: Williams, Musalem Barkin

Wednesday January14th

Data: US Retail Sales, Canada Leading index, China Trade US Beige Book

Earnings: Wells Fargo, Citi, Infosys,

Central Bankers: Miran, Kashkari, Bostic, Williams,

Thursday January15^th

Data: UK GDP EU Trade Balance, Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed

Earnings: TSMC, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, First Horizon, Blackrock,

Central Bankers:Bostic, Barr, Barkin.

Friday January16^th

Data: Gernany Inflation,  US Industrial Producion

Earnings: Statestreet

Central Bankers: Bowman, Jefferson