Morning Brew February 22 2024

Good Morning,

Peters Initial Reaction to the Nvidia numbers: “Nvidia posts very strong Q4 2024 earnings. EPS $5.16 vs est. $4.64 and sales of $22.1bn vs est. $20.6bn. Nvidia guides Q1 2025 sales of $24bn vs est. $21.9bn while saying generative AI has hit "tipping point" indicating strong future demand. Shares up 6% in extended trading.

This is just an insane result and the guidance is strong. The wording “tipping point” is the strongest forward looking indication the company has provided so far since generative AI took off. I have never anything like this in my career. However, it will be increasingly difficult for Nvidia to exceed expectations and this could be the last insane quarter…”

The key will be the digestion of these numbers and if the sentiment holds. There were a lot of more outlandish option trades recently where 1200 calls were bought and so on, these will be unwound and cause some volatility but I am very much looking forward to Peters  in depth analysis in the platform. So far we are well on the way to see the expected volatility this week.

The Fed minutes showed some worries about cutting rates to soon but raised hopes on tapering QT but markets were basically not very focussed on it.

The rise in Nvidia is pulling global equities higher and the Nikkei has reached a new all time high after 35 years! Having studies in Japan right after the bubble burst, I am very curious to see what this will do to sentiment among the Japanese.

The US 500 is at 5022, the US Tech 100 NAS 17750 and the GER40 17220 – the Japan 225 is trading at 39k!

Mercedes beats estimates this morning and is up almost 4% premarket, Zurish insurance beats expectations while Nestle misses…

FX was fairly quiet with the USD Index at 103.80, ten year yields at 4.30. EURUSD 1.0836, GBPUSD 1.2650 and USDJPY 150.23. Gold and Silver are 2029 and 22.96.

Today we will receive international PMI and will most likely focus on digesting the Nvidia results. The Turkish Central Bank will announce rates and is expected to hold at 45%.

Thursday
- Data International PMI, Turkey Rate decision, US Initial jobless claims,
- Earnings: Zurich Insurance, Nestle, AXA, Booking.com, Intuit, Mercedes, Iberdrola,

Friday
- Data DE GDP, IFO,
- Earnings: Deutsche Telekom, Allianz

Saturday: Berkshire Hathaway Inc

Expiries

Physically Settled Futures

CTH4 will expire 22 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT
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Expiring CFDs
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