Morning Brew February 16 2026

Good morning,

Friday was a relatively slow day in equities as we were heading into the long U.S. weekend and the Chinese New Year. The lower-than-expected CPI helped stabilize sentiment but failed to excite traders.

The Dow ended up 0.10%, the S&P 500 rose 0.05%, while the Nasdaq lost 0.22%. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 1.39%, the Nasdaq declined 2.1%, and the Dow dropped 1.23%—their biggest weekly losses since November.

Applied Materials shares jumped 8.1% after the chipmaking-equipment firm forecasted second-quarter revenue and profit above Wall Street expectations. Apple lost 2.4%, Nvidia 2.1%, and Meta 1.4%.

10-year yields fell to 4.05%. While a rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting remains largely off the table, the year-end rate is back at -62 basis points, so 25 cuts of 25 basis points. The USD index fell below 97 again; EUR/USD ended the week at 1.1870, GBP/USD at 1.3650, and USD/JPY at 152.70+.

Gold and silver recovered to 5040 and 77.40. This morning, we are at 5000 and 77. After the recent volatility in precious metals, it will be interesting to see how they fare without China. Also, towards the end of the week, many mining companies will report their results.

This week starts with China, the U.S., as well as Taiwan and Canada, closed. China is closed the full week; the U.S. only for a single day. The key day of the week is likely to be Friday, when the U.S. PCE will be released, the Fed’s key inflation measure. There is also the possibility that the U.S. Supreme Court will issue the ruling on Trump’s tariffs on Friday.

The U.S. military is preparing for the possibility of sustained, weeks-long operations against Iran if President Donald Trump orders an attack, two U.S. officials told Reuters. U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will hold negotiations with Iran on Tuesday in Geneva, with representatives from Oman acting as mediators.

U.S. bank regulators appear to be moving closer to proposing a new version of the so-called "Basel endgame" rules dictating how large banks must measure their risk, according to regulatory filings posted this week.

At the Munich Security Conference, the paradigm shift in geopolitics was underscored as German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said, “The world order as it has stood for decades no longer exists.” Marco Rubio tried to soften the U.S. withdrawal from its previous role but stressed, “We expect every country in the world to act in their national interest. That is what countries are supposed to do.” He is visiting Central Europe over the next few days.

Monday, Feb 16 (US Presidents' Day Holiday)

Economic Events
Japan GDP

• US: Markets closed
• China Markets closed

Tuesday, Feb 17

Economic Events

• Germany: CPI final, ZEW
• UK: Labor market data
• Canada: CPI inflation
• China Markets closed

Earnings Releases

• Etoro, Hecla, Toll Brothers

Speaker: Barr & Daly

Wednesday, Feb 18

Economic Events

• Japan Trade Balance
• UK: CPI inflation.
• US: Durable Goods Orders, Fed Minutes (Jan).
• China Markets closed

Earnings Releases

• SolarEdge, Garmin, Moody`s , Door dash, Royal gold, Equinox Gold, eBay

Speakers: Bowman

Thursday, Feb 19

Economic Events

• Italy/France/Germany: Flash PMIs (prelim).
• US Initial Jobless Claims
• China Markets closed

Earnings Releases

• Walmart, First Majestic Silver, John Deere, Klarna, Wayfair, Transocean, Newmont, Centerra Gold

Speaker:  Bostic, Bowman, Kashkari

Friday, Feb 20

Economic Events

• Japan CPI
• US: GDP Q4 final, PCE inflation (key).
• Germany/Eurozone/UK/US: Flash PMIs.
• UK: Retail sales.
• China Markets closed
•  

Earnings Releases

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