Morning Brew December 21 2021
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Winter Solstice - Try changes course
Markets are on the rise again, equity futures are up app 1%, 10 year yields rise to 1.42 , EURUSD and GBPUSD rise to 1.1280 and 1.3215, Bitcoin rises to above 48000 gold and Silver make up most of yesterdays losses to trade at 1789 and 22.36.
Most interesting yesterday was an announcement by Turkish president Erdogan to make up for losses in lira deposits if the lira declines exceed interest rates promised by banks. The Lira rises by 40% on the measure. Yesterdays high was 18.24 todays low is 10.68. It will be interesting to understand the financing.
Overall markets are not sure of their direction between Lockdown worries and optimism.
Megatech remained under pressure, Tesla closed below 900 for the first time in since October, Apple lost 0.7%, Meta 2.5% and Microsoft 1.2%.
The Dax Future seems again drawn to the 200d MA that lies at 15503.
GBPUSD is trading above support at 1.3170 and the leaders of both countries are under severe political pressure that could be an interesting setup.
European natural gas prices jumped more than 8% yesterday, nearing an all-time high, with Russian deliveries to Germany through the Yamal-Europe pipeline at very low levels. This will have an impact on inflation and also drive secondary prices ie for fertilizer. Also Electricity prices continue to rise. Track and trade the European Energy Exchange Futures by looking for EEX in Saxo Trader.
The economic agenda is winding down for the year end, today we are expecting the GFK from Germany at 8:00 , the US current account and Canadian retail sales at 14:30 and the EU consumer confidence at 16:00.
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.