Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Winter Solstice - Try changes course
Good morning,
Markets are on the rise again, equity futures are up app 1%, 10 year yields rise to 1.42 , EURUSD and GBPUSD rise to 1.1280 and 1.3215, Bitcoin rises to above 48000 gold and Silver make up most of yesterdays losses to trade at 1789 and 22.36.
Most interesting yesterday was an announcement by Turkish president Erdogan to make up for losses in lira deposits if the lira declines exceed interest rates promised by banks. The Lira rises by 40% on the measure. Yesterdays high was 18.24 todays low is 10.68. It will be interesting to understand the financing.
Overall markets are not sure of their direction between Lockdown worries and optimism.
Megatech remained under pressure, Tesla closed below 900 for the first time in since October, Apple lost 0.7%, Meta 2.5% and Microsoft 1.2%.
The Dax Future seems again drawn to the 200d MA that lies at 15503.
GBPUSD is trading above support at 1.3170 and the leaders of both countries are under severe political pressure that could be an interesting setup.
European natural gas prices jumped more than 8% yesterday, nearing an all-time high, with Russian deliveries to Germany through the Yamal-Europe pipeline at very low levels. This will have an impact on inflation and also drive secondary prices ie for fertilizer. Also Electricity prices continue to rise. Track and trade the European Energy Exchange Futures by looking for EEX in Saxo Trader.
The economic agenda is winding down for the year end, today we are expecting the GFK from Germany at 8:00 , the US current account and Canadian retail sales at 14:30 and the EU consumer confidence at 16:00.
Trade safely
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.