Morning Brew December 2 2024

Good morning,

We are heading into December from interesting Levels

After Friday - the last trading day of November – was a very good day for equities overall and tech and retail in particular, the Dow Jones and the S&P closed t record levels, the Russel and the GER40 are within reach of their all time highs. Due to the Thanksgiving Holiday, the volume was only slightly more than half of normal.

Commoditiies basically went nowhere in November, even if the the volatility we felt seems to paint a different picture. Ole wrote an analysis on commodities and points out that in all  Decembers since 2017,  Gold always rose – will the trend hold? We just saw the worst month since September 23 for the precious metal.  Bitcoin Will we break the 100k? we remain within reach at 96300.  John published his FX outlook this morning

The USD Index is currently trading above 106,16 EURUSD 1.0535, GBPUSD 1.2705 and USDJPY 150.

Cronyism remains a topic in US Politics as Donald Trump announces the father of his son in law to be ambassador to France and Joe Biden pardons his son Hunter.

What are we watching this week?

France continues to worry investors:  while the economic situation in Germany seems bleak, the French is even worse, the spread between the German and French 10 year Yields at a massive 0.8%. The German is at 2.08%, France 2.88 %. While German Equities remain optimistic, the Dax near all time highs and up 18% on the year, the French are down almost 4%.

On Tuesday we are expecting the Swiss CPI, economists see the number at 0.8%. After the SNB mentioned negative rates again, this will be important for the SMI and the CHF.

UK Policy Details will be released and will be closely watched. The popularity of the labor government is fading quickly.

BRICS: Donald Trump issued threats to the BRICS states they would face tariffs of up to 100% if they were looking to challenge the US Dollar`s dominance. Economists seemed baffled by the statement because there seemed to be no plans for such a move after the last BRICS meeting .

Black Friday was a success for retail, Mastercard estimates 0.7% in-store sales growth, 14.6% online

The Nonfarm Payroll will be released on Frida as the key economic event of the week, expected at 195k after last month, a disappointing 12k was released.

VW is facing a US 1.4 billion charge in India for paying too little import taxes while in German the company is facing strikes starting as of today.

Stellantis CEO Carlo9s Taveres resigned yesterday after his company lost app 40% in value this year.

Coffee is trading at a 47 year high on worries of a weak harvest in Brazil.

The 3^rd batch of US Trade restrictions against China are taking effect today, with chip sales to 140 Chinese companies being restricted.

Fighting in Syria remains fierce with Russia supporting the Assad regime against Rebel forces.

Key Events this week:

Monday
- Data Global PMI, Italy GDP

Tuesday
- Data  Switzerland CPI, Jolts Job openings
- Earnings: Salesforce
Wednesday
- Data International PMI , Beige Book, Fed Chair Powell Speech

Thursday
- Data German Industrial Orders, US Initial Jobless Claims,

Friday
- Data De Industrial Output, EU GDP, US Nonfarm Payroll, University of Michigan Consumer confidence.

The Key events of the month:;