Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Digesting Last Week
Good Morning,
Equities closed lower on Friday but could rise off the lows, the US 500 trades as low as 3827 before rising to 3855, the GER40 also had the low near expiry time at app. 13800 and is not 13920.
It is noteworthy that Nasdaq and S&P 500 fell below the 50 day moving average.
US 10 year yields rose to 3.52%, nevertheless, the USD Index fell 0.2 this morning to 104.4 on the Euro being stronger and we saw lots of volatility in the Yen on rumors of a change in the inflation targets.
USDJPY traded as high as 138.10 on Thursday and is not 136.10, EURUSD gained 50 pips off Fridays low. Cable is at 1.2180. Gold and silver could recover off the lows as well and XAUXAG fell off the high. Bitcoin fell to 16700, nearly 105 lower than last week`s high and oil is trading at 74.85 after huge swings of 7.5 USD last week.
It will be interesting to see what this weeks focus will be, there are some economic releases but nothing like last week, Chinese economic policies will receive attention and there will be some Window dressing by institutional investors to clean their positions towards year end.
Many traders will re-orient themselves after the data points and central bank decisions last week and for the new year.
Our Analyst Redmond wrote a summary of the more supportive stance by Chinese authorities
Elon Musk is holding a vote on twitter if he should resign from twitter, he said he would abide by. Currently, 56 % of people are in favor of him stepping down. This could move Tesla`s stock price significantly.
The most important data releases:
Monday 19 December
Tuesday 20 December
Wednesday 21 December
Thursday 22 December
Friday 23 December
Trade safely!
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.