Morning Brew December 16 2025

Good morning,

US Markets: US indexes closed lower yesterday, with the Dow down 0.1%, the S&P 500 off 0.16%, and the Nasdaq losing 0.6%. Trading volumes were solid at 17 billion shares. Notably, Tesla gained after progress in its robotaxi technology, while iRobot plunged 70% following its Chapter 11 filing.

Europe: European markets ended higher (measured at the 17:30 close). The GER40 is testing its 200-hour moving average, which has provided reliable support since November.

Corporate News: A Reuters report revealed that Meta knowingly accepted ads for scams, illegal gambling, pornography, and other banned content from China, generating $3 billion in revenue in 2024. Ford Motor announced a $19.5 billion write-down and the discontinuation of several electric vehicle models. The EU is considering changes to its ban on combustion engines.

Oracle Credit Default Swaps have trisen to 148, implying a 12% probability of default in 5 years.

Macro & Geopolitics: There are signs of progress in Ukraine peace talks, though no imminent breakthrough is expected.

Markets & Commodities: US Treasury yields and the US dollar remain stable ahead of a busy data week and the holiday season (10-year yield at 4.16%, USD Index at 98.25). EUR/USD is at 1.1750, GBP/USD at 1.3350, and USD/JPY at 154.90. Precious metals recovered yesterday but are giving up ground today: gold at $4,290, silver at $62.90, and platinum at $1,807. Bitcoin remains subdued at 86,280, down 8% year-to-date.

Upcoming Data: Today brings a series of PMI releases—UK at 8:00, EU at 10:00, and US at 15:45. Key US data includes Non-Farm Payrolls (expected: +50k), unemployment rate (expected: 4.4%), and average earnings (expected: 3.6%). Retail sales data will also be released, but as it covers October, its market impact should be limited.

Passive investing has been one of my favorite topics this year, especially regarding the impact of ETF savings plans on the broader market. According to recent AI-driven estimates, these plans contribute approximately 14 points per month to the DAX Index and 25 points per month to the S&P 500. While there is some uncertainty in these estimates due to market elasticity, the

As we are heading into the year end and are expecting great amounts of data, trade extra carefully!

Tuesday December 16

International  PMI, Germany ZEW, US Nonfarm Payrolls Retail Sales (October)

Wednesday December 17

Japan Trade, UK CPI, DE IFO, EU Infaltion,

Speakers: Waller, Bostic, Williams,

Thurday December 18

Sweden, Norway Denmark , EU & UK Rate Decision US CPI.

Speakers: Lagarde

Friday December 19

Japan Rate decision UK Retail Sales, US PCE, University of Michigan