Macro: Sandcastle economics
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Morning Brew August 7 2023
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Looking for directions - CPI Key?
Good Morning,
Lower Nonfarm Payrolls and Apple caused equities to drop Friday and close the week in minus. Apple fell 4.8% on lower earnings – Countered by Amazon with a plus of 8.3%. Apples Market Cap is now 2.86 Trillion, Amazon only 1.3 Trillion.
In the earning season, based on Refinitiv Data, app 90% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings and 80% of those exceeded expectations by 4% on average.
On Friday, the Dow lost 0.4%, the S&P 500 0.5% an the Nasdaq 0.3%. This morning, Risk sentiment is gaining again where Equities are concerned and must key indexes are gaining just below 0.5%.
Against an expectation of 200k, the US economy had only added 187%. 10 year Yields fell from above 4.2% to now 4.06, the USD Index from 102.60 to 102.20. EURUSD tested the 1.0910 on Thursday, rose to 1.1040 on Friday and is not at 1.0985 GBPUSD also traded a huge range from 1.2620 to 1.2797 now 1.2727.
Gold and silver are at 1937 and 23.50 despite the central banks adding the largest amount on record: central bank gold purchases totaled 387 tons in the first half.
Warren Buffet had another good quarter with profits at 6928 USD /share against an estimate of 5.553.
Icahn Enterprises lost 23% after cutting payouts – the company had need under pressure by short Seller Hindenburg Research
Reports indicate that in the takeover of Credit Suisse, significant layoffs at the CS Investment are expected to commence as early as this month
This week, I expect the Chinese and US Inflation data to be key and otherwise overall economic sentiment to drive markets. Traders are certainly unsure of where we are going as can be seen in the sharp moves after earnings and data releases. Trade carefully and I suggest to take a look at Koens article on hedgin
Monday August 7
Data: DE Industrial Output, UK House prices. Swiss FX Reserves
Earnings: KKR, Palantir, Paramount, Beyond Meat, Biontech
Tueday August 8
Data: China Trade Data, DE HICP
Earnings: UPS, Rivan, AMC,
Wednesday August 9
Data: China CPI,
Earnings: Sony, Wendy`s, Disney, Sonos,
Thursday August 10
Data: US CPI, US Job data
Earnings: Baba, Novo Nordisk, Ionq, Wheaton,
Friday August 11
Data: China Money supply, UK GDP, US PPI
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