Morning Brew August 5 2025

Good morning,

Markets remind me of a year ago when, at the beginning of August, we saw a severe risk-off move with equities falling and overall deleveraging. Then sentiment turned, and we recovered in the first few days of August. Are passive investments the key driver here, or is it because yields fell due to lower employment data?

Equities soared yesterday, with the major indexes adding between 1% and 1.5%, though volumes were low as traders looked for inspiration. Palantir reported good results and improved its outlook, with shares adding 8% between the regular session and the aftermarket. Tesla granted Elon Musk 96 million shares in compensation, worth approximately 30 billion USD. Donald Trump ranted against India yesterday, expressing his unhappiness with India buying oil from Russia and allegedly reselling it. This could impact Apple, which has just moved production from China to India to avoid tariffs.

US yields remain subdued: the 1-year is at 3.86%, and the 10-year is at 4.20%. The probability that the Fed will cut rates at the September meeting is now above 90%. EURUSD is at 1.1550, GBPUSD at 1.3275, and USDJPY at 147.15. Gold and silver are at 3370 and 37.35 respectively, and platinum is at 1330. All precious metals found support at the 50-day moving average over the last couple of days.

Earnings and global PMI are the most watched events today. I expect trade news and political maneuvers in the US to be more important. While the risk-on move seems strong, will it hold?

Tuesday, August 5, 2025

Economic Events

•        Global PMI incl the US  ISM

• US International Trade

  •        Canada: Merchandise Trade Balance (June)1.

  Top Earnings Releases

  •        Pfizer, BP, Snap, Lucid AMD; Supermicro

  Wednesday, August 6, 2025

  Economic Events

  •        Eurozone: Retail Sales

• Germany Industrial Orders

  Top Earnings Releases

  •        Uber, Shopify, Disney, McDonalds,

  Thursday, August 7, 2025

  Economic Events

• China Trade
• Germany Industrial Output
• UK House Prices
• UK Rate decision

•        U.S.: Productivity (Q2, preliminary), Wholesale Inventories (June, final), Consumer Credit

•        Japan: Leading Indicators (June, preliminary), Trade Balance, Current Account

•        UK: Bank of England

Top Earnings Releases

•        Shopify (SHOP)

•        Trex Co (TREX)

•        Under Armour (UAA)

•        Wendy’s (WEN)654.

Friday, August 8, 2025

Economic Events

•        Canada: Employment Report

Top Earnings Releases

•        Algonquin Power & Utilities (AQN)

•        Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR)

•        Enbridge (ENB)

•        Lamar Advertising (LAMR)

•        Tempus AI (TEM)