Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Can Risk sentiment Hold?
Good Morning,
Risk started strong into the last week of August – let us see if it holds.
Equities rose basically across the board, the large indexes ended up between 0.5% and 1% and are currently at US500 4440, The US 30 34585 the US Tech 15085 and the GER40 15825. The S&P may be setting up for a head and shoulder formation and needs a close above 4459 in the Index
For Swiss, UBS is the stock of the hour is has been rising over the last few months and is testing the 2015 highs in the Swiss line. It needs to break above 22.51. In the US Line, it has made the break and is trading at the highest level since the global financial crisis. The Swiss lender will release the first quarterly report on Thursday after the Credit Suisse takeover and is expect to release more details on the strategy.
Yields fell across the board, and the USD gave up some ground and the USD Index is trading below 104 again. EURUSD is at 1.0822, GBPUSD 1.2620 and USDJPY 146.50. Gold and Silver are trading 1924 and 24.35.
Toyota stated it is suffering a malfunction in domestic production and has shut down all production in Japan. The company believes the issue is not due to a cyberattack.
3M rose 5% yesterday on a settlement with the US military that obligates the company to pay 6 Billion.
Today we will see if Risk sentiment holds through a decent amount of data starting with German consumer confidence and Swedish Retail Sales at 8, French Consumer confidence at 8:45 , the Hungarian Rate decision at 14:00, Case Shiller House Prices at 15:00 and JOLTS Job openings at 16:00.
Trade safely.
Tuesday 29 August
CFD EXPIRY
- Data: German GfK Consumer Sentiment US Consumer Confidence, JOLTS Job Openings, Case Schiller
- Earnings: CITIC, Xiaomi , Bank of Nova Scotia, Bank of Montreal
Wednesday 30 August
EXPIRY FOR MANY FUTURES
- Data KOF Indicator, DE CPI, US GDP,
- Earnings PetroChina Co, Bank of China, Salesforce
Thusday 31 August
- Data DE Unemployment Rate, EU HICP & Unemployment rate, PCE Price Index, Initial Jobless Claims
- Earnings Dollar General UBS Group Dell Technologies, VMware, Broadcom
Friday September 1
- Data China PMI, Swiss CPI, DE & & EU PMI US Nonfarm Payroll, Unemployment Rate, ISM , Canada GDP
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures
Expiring CFDs