Morning Brew August 28 2025

Good morning!

Nvidia delivered but underwhelmed traders: Revenue rose 55.6% to $46.74 billion from a year ago; analysts expected $46.06 billion. EPS for the quarter was $1.08, with net income of $26.42 billion. Nvidia's Q3 guidance of around $54 billion topped estimates. Despite this, the stock ended slightly lower.

Charu comments:

Nvidia’s latest results once again exceeded consensus numbers — revenue rose 56% year-over-year to $46.7 billion, and Q3 guidance of around $54 billion surpassed estimates. Yet, the market sold off. Why?

• Flattening Growth Curve: The company’s exceptional triple-digit growth from 2023–24 is decelerating. Investors are now concerned that slower revenue expansion could lead to compressed earnings multiples, even if absolute profits remain outstanding.
• Data-Center Segment Underwhelmed: This segment has been the growth engine of Nvidia’s AI dominance. While still robust, results fell short of Wall Street’s “whisper” expectations, slightly cooling the AI frenzy.
• Policy Overhangs Persist: Nvidia reported no sales of its H20 AI chip to China during the quarter. With U.S.–China tech tensions simmering, export restrictions remain a significant risk to future growth.
• Crowded Positioning: Nvidia had surged significantly leading up to earnings, carrying considerable weight in indices. After the S&P 500 closed at a record high, investors seized the opportunity to secure profits.

Before the release, the S&P 500 reached a new record and rose by 0.24%, the Nasdaq gained 0.21%, and the Dow increased by 0.32%. Trading volumes were relatively low at 14 billion.

Japan's trade negotiator canceled a trip to the US last minute, sparking concerns about the state of the negotiations. The US Dollar is trading slightly weaker on dovish comments, while the Euro remains surprisingly stable despite concerns over the potential collapse of the French government. The USD Index fell from 98.80 to 98.12, EUR/USD is at 1.1640, GBP/USD at 1.35, and USD/JPY at 147.10. Gold and silver are at the higher end of their trading range, at 3390 and 38.75, respectively.

Today, the main drivers will likely be political and tariff news, second-tier US data, and any shifts in Nvidia shares. After-hours trading often does not provide a complete picture.

We are also watching for news from France and the spread between French and German Bonds as measure of risk. 

The next significant event is the PCE release tomorrow, coinciding with the last trading day of the month, as we head into a three-day weekend in the US with Labor Day.

Thursday, August 28

• EU: ECB Consumer Confidence
• US: Weekly Jobless Claims, GDP
• Earnings: Dell

Friday, August 29

• Japan: CPI
• France: CPI
• Swiss: KOF
• DE: Unemployment
• Canada: GDP
• US: PCE & University of Michigan
• Earnings: EMS Chemie, Alibaba