Morning Brew August 23 2023

Good Morning,

We are witnessing number of curious market moves and the reasoning is not fully obvious.

Indexes gave up a little ground yesterday on little volume. The biggest detractors were retail after Macy`s warned of slow consumer spending. It`s shares declined 14%. Banks suffered after the S&P downgrade of banks - Citi is under severe pressure – on the other hand UBS is having a great time. Since 2020 UBS has gained more than 70% while Citi has lost almost 50%-.

Nvidia could gain after good earnings of Baidu but ass the breakdown shoed that ad revenue was higher and the cloud business actually disappointed, Nvidia gave up ground. The earnings release after the bell will be THE event of the day.

Indexes closed within 0.5% range and since gained. The US 500 is back at 4400, the US 30 34373 and the US Tech 100 NAS at 15760. The GER40 is at 15760. Volumes were 15% below average.

Yields remain high with the 10 year at 4.30 and the USD Index strong at 103.50, EURUSD fell below the 1.09 top trade 1.0850 and GBPUSD is at 1.2750. Gold and Silver are strong with Gold at 1903 and Silver at 23.60.

What will drive sentiment?

Little Data today unless there is a severe surprise in one of the PMI, Nvidia earnings after the close. We are expecting two key US bond auctions for 20and 30 Year bonds today and tomorrow. Comments out of the BRICS and Jackson Hole Meetings are likely to make or break the week.

Wednesday August 23

Data: Japan PMI, Denmark consumer confidence, FR DE, UK, EU PMI, EU Consumer confidence

Earnings China Construction Bank, China Life Insurance ,Analog Devices Inc, NVIDIA Corp

Thursday August 24
Start: The 2023 Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole  "Structural Shifts in the Global Economy," Aug. 24-26.

Data: Turkey Rate decision, US Durable Goods orders, Initial jobless claims

Earnings CRH PLC, AIA Group, Toronto-Dominion, Workday Inc, Marvell Technology, Royal Bank of Canada

Friday August 25

Data: Japan CPI; PPI, DE GDP & IFO, University of Michigan

Earnings: China Merchants Bank China Petroleum & Chemical Zijin Mining Group