Morning Brew August 14 2026

Good morning.

The main story this morning is geopolitics, yields  and oil. The United States says it can maintain a naval blockade of Iran indefinitely and is preparing to increase economic pressure on Tehran, while ceasefire talks remain stuck. Tehran continues to demand concessions before the Strait of Hormuz can fully reopen, and the latest headlines around attacks on vessels keep the market focused on energy security, shipping routes and inflation risk.

Global supply is falling, shipping remains disrupted and the Gulf remains unstable, traders need to think about second-round effects: higher transport costs, renewed inflation pressure, lower consumer confidence and a more difficult job for central banks.

Equities are still ignoring quite a lot of bad news. Wall Street closed higher again, with the broader U.S. market at a fresh record and technology once more doing much of the work. The rally remains supported by artificial-intelligence momentum and strong megacap leadership Several company reactions show the same pattern: strong numbers or upbeat guidance are not always enough if investors were already positioned for perfection.

Europe was more mixed in thin summer trading. The Euro Stoxx 50 remains very close to its record high, while the DAX, CAC 40 and FTSE 100 were softer.  

EURUSD is 1.1540, GBPUSD 1.35 and USDJPY 159.20. USDJPY remains in the spotlight as the plan of the BOJ to boost strength of the Yen remains unclear. I expect at one point the BoJ will have to hike rates…

Bond markets remain the quiet warning signal. The latest U.S. 30-year auction cleared at its highest yield since 2001, following a 10-year auction at the highest level since the global financial crisis. Demand was acceptable but not strong, and investors are clearly asking for more compensation to finance the growing U.S. deficit. Real yields are now at multi-year highs in several major borrowing nations, which is not a comfortable backdrop for expensive growth assets.

Apple is reportedly developing a China-specific large language model with support from Alibaba, while also preparing to assemble the Mac Mini in Houston as part of a broader U.S. manufacturing push.

Maersk generated operating earnings of $3.0 billion in the second quarter, measured by EBITDA. The increase of just over 30% came as a surprise and was attributed by Maersk to higher freight rates.

There is also an interesting energy-transition angle. Higher fuel costs linked to the Iran war appear to be accelerating demand for electric vehicles and electric trucks. Germany has reported record electric-vehicle sales, while Chinese exports of electric trucks to other Asian countries have jumped. One of the few positive outcomes of the Iran war is one DJT did not intend.  

Food and supply-chain risks should not be ignored either. Ukraine has reportedly offered Russia a mutual halt to attacks on civilian targets in the Black Sea after strikes on vessels and ports raised fresh concerns over grain flows. Both countries remain important players in global agriculture, so any disruption around the Black Sea can quickly become a food-price story rather than just another geopolitical headline. The German farmer association is warning of production shortfalls.

Gold and silver are a little lower this morning, with gold around 4,330 and silver near 64.20. The move looks more like hesitation than a broken trend, but the setup remains highly sensitive to yields and the dollar. If real yields keep rising, precious metals may struggle; if geopolitical stress dominates again, safe-haven demand can return quickly.

Today’s focus is U.S. retail sales. The number will matter because markets need to know whether the consumer is still strong enough to support earnings without forcing yields even higher. Yield worries, U.S. debt dynamics, Iran headlines and Europe’s drought will also remain in focus. Next week is lighter in terms of data and earnings, which can mean two very different things: either a quiet summer market, or a more erratic one where headlines matter even more.

Trade safely and avoid the complacency trap.

Friday, 14 August 2026

Macro: France CPI; euro-area GDP; U.S. retail sales for July; U.S. business inventories; preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment; Baker Hughes rig count.

Monday, 17 August 2026
Macro: China Retail Sales , Canada CPI Empire Fed survey; NAHB housing market index.
global large-cap earnings focus.
Tuesday, 18 August 2026
Macro: ZEW  Import Prices,  U.S. industrial production and capacity utilisation; pending home sales.
Corporate earnings: Home Depot.
Wednesday, 19 August 2026
Macro: EI HICP FOMC minutes from the July meeting.
Central banks / speakers: FOMC minutes released at 20:00 CET.
Corporate earnings: Target and selected U.S. retailers.
Thursday, 20 August 2026
Macro: Japan  Trade Balance U.S. initial jobless claims; Philadelphia Fed survey; Leading Economic Index.
Central banks / speakers: Fed balance sheet after the close