Morning Brew April 30 2026

Good morning

Tomorrow there will be no Morning Brew due to Labor day

it is a strange day, where we have the Fed meeting, the Bank of Canada as well as 4 of the magnificent reporting earnings and oil prices steal the spotlight but here we are.

Lack of any progress in the middle east and worries the straight of Hormuz will be blocked for longer raises oil prices and fuels global inflation worries. Yields rise across the board with US 10`s at 4.42, UK 5.07 and EU 3.09, and Japan 2.53.

The US500 is 7124 this morning, the GER40 23700 and the Japan 225 59250.

In FX, the elephant in the room is the Yen at 160.50 – this is a very uncomfortable level for the Bank of Japan, other majors moved less significantly as yields moved in parallel. Gold and Silver fell yesterday but are stable this morning at 4561 and 72

Oil prices rose sharply on Thursday after a report that the U.S. is considering potential military action against Iran, heightening concerns about further supply disruptions in an already constrained Middle East market. Brent crude for June jumped $5.27, or 4.5%, to $123.30 per barrel after gaining 6.1% in the prior session. The more active July contract rose $2.66, or 2.4%, to $113.10, following a 5.8% increase previously.

The 4 Mag 7:

Google Cloud revenue grew 63% year-over-year to $20 billion in Q1, well above the 50.1% growth expected by analysts, marking its strongest expansion since segment disclosure began. Shares rose after the bell.

Amazon also beat expectations, with AWS revenue rising 28% to $37.6 billion versus estimates of $36.61 billion (+25.08%), supported by continued enterprise demand tied to AI adoption. Shares fell after the announcement.

Meta raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $125–145 billion, up from $115–135 billion previously, reinforcing its aggressive AI investment strategy despite ongoing cost controls. Markets initially reacted negatively, but losses were later fully recovered.

Microsoft reported strong quarterly results across the board, with revenue increasing 18% to $82.9 billion and net income rising to $31.78 billion (from $25.82 billion a year earlier), both ahead of market expectations. Microsoft Cloud revenue reached $54.5 billion (+29%), while Azure grew 40% and the Intelligent Cloud segment rose 30% to $34.7 billion. Shares initially jumped but then ended lower.

Charu took a look at the implication of the earnings: A different earnings reaction: same theme, new discipline

The latest round of Mag 7 earnings was strong on the surface — solid revenue growth, improving cloud trends, and continued AI momentum — but the details matter more this time. Crucially, capex guidance was revised higher across hyperscalers , with combined 2026 spend now tracking around $725 billion (vs. ~$670 billion pre-earnings), and Meta lifting its range to $125–145 billion . Alphabet and Microsoft also flagged capacity constraints , signaling demand is running ahead of supply.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said he would stay a central bank governor when his leadership term ends next month. “After my term as chair ends on May 15, I will continue to serve as a governor for a period of time to be determined. I plan to keep a low profile as a governor.”
The U.S. House approved a three-year budget plan enabling consideration of an additional $70 billion for immigration enforcement.
Standard Chartered announced that first-quarter pretax profit climbed a better-than-expected 17%.

What to expect today? The Bank of England and ECB will announce rates and hold their press conferences. EU and US inflation data are due, expected at 2.9% in Europe and 3.5% in the US.

Apple earnings are coming after the bell.

Iran remains the focus of attention. It is becoming clear that there is no real U.S. plan to resolve the situation and international pressure on the U.S. will mount quickly to find a solution.

Watch the oil price as an indication for sentiment…

Thursday, April 30, 2026

Japan industrial production, China PMI, Swiss KOF, Germany GDP, EU inflation, U.S. PCE, ECB and Bank of England rate decisions, U.S. GDP.

Earnings: Caterpillar, Eli Lilly, Mastercard, Apple, Reddit.

Friday, May 1, 2026

Labor Day in the U.S. and PMI data.

Earnings: Chevron, Exxon, Moderna, Linde.