Morning Brew April 29 2025

Good morning,

Yesterday was a calm day without much inspiration in equities. The USD lost ground on falling yields ahead of key data and earnings this week. We are starting to see some concerning data points from the US, such as the April Dallas Fed’s business activity index for Texas manufacturing, which fell 19.5 points to -35.8, its lowest since May 2020.

Today, we are only expecting economic events of moderate importance before we head into the busy second half of the week. In Canada, the Liberals could win the election, supported by the unwilling help of the Trump administration. USDCAD did not move extraordinarily. The USD Index is trading at above 99, EURUSD at 1.1385, GBPUSD at 1.3410, and USDJPY at 142.50. Japan is celebrating Golden Week, so stocks are closed and liquidity may be thin in FX. Gold and silver are meandering around 3300 and 33, respectively, while Bitcoin is at 95k. The Dow is at 40,200, the US 500 at 5,530, and the US Tech100 NAS at 19,430. The Swiss Index has reclaimed the 12,000 mark.

Expect large swings starting tomorrow with the Microsoft and Meta earnings at the latest. I doubt this is the time to be complacent. Options have become a lot cheaper with the receding VIX

“This week isn't just another earnings season; it’s a moment of truth for Big Tech, investor confidence, and global markets. Clarity will be your most valuable asset.”

Crucial earnings ahead for Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Apple: Big Tech's moment of truth | Saxo Bank. Microsoft and Tesla have reclaimed their 50-day moving averages, while the other Mag 7 are approaching theirs.

Other headlines:

• Spain and Portugal have their power back after the huge outeage yesterday,.
• Trump is celebrating his first 100 day in office, we have 1362 to go
• The US Is considering easing Auto Tariffs
• Novartis raises the 2025 expectation
• HASBC suffers a 25% decline in profits but can beat expectations.

Pls remember that the next Autoinvest is scheduled for next weeks Monday, make sure the funding is in place to execute.

Tuesday, April 29

• Germany: GfK Consumer Confidence (06:00 AM CEST)
• Sweden: GDP (08:00 AM CEST)
• Italy: Business & Consumer Confidence (08:00 AM CEST)
• Euro Area: Economic Sentiment (09:00 AM CEST)
• US: Goods Trade Balance Advance (12:30 PM CEST), JOLTS Job Openings, Consumer Confidence

Wednesday, April 30

• Australia: CPI
• China: PMI
• Germany: Import Prices YoY (06:00 AM CEST), Retail Sales, Unemployment, GDP
• France: Inflation Rate YoY/MoM Prel, PPI (06:45 AM CEST)
• EU: GDP
• Switzerland: KOF
• US: GDP, PCE Price Index
• Canada: GDP

Thursday, May 1

• France: Budget Balance (06:45 AM CEST)
• Italy: Manufacturing PMI (07:45 AM CEST)
• Germany: Manufacturing PMI (07:55 AM CEST)
• Euro Area: ECB Economic Bulletin (08:00 AM CEST)
• Italy: Unemployment Rate (08:00 AM CEST)
• Euro Area: Inflation Rate YoY Flash (09:00 AM CEST)
• Switzerland: Retail Sales, procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (07:30 AM CEST)
• US: PMI

Friday, May 2

• Global PMI
• US: Nonfarm Payrolls

Earnings:

• Tuesday: UPS, PayPal, JetBlue, Coca-Cola, Pfizer, Spotify, Visa, Starbucks, Snap
• Wednesday: Amphenol (APH), Caterpillar, Western Digital, Microsoft, Meta, Robinhood
• Thursday: Lilly, Mastercard, McDonald's, Amazon, Apple, Airbnb, Reddit
• Friday: ExxonMobil