Morning BrewApril 21 2026

Good morning,

Lack of progress in Iran weighed on stocks yesterday, and the official index closes were negative even though futures ended in the green at their respective closes.

The S&P 500 lost 15.84 points, or 0.22%, to end at 7,11 points, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 60.48 points, or 0.25%, to 24,408. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.2 points, or 0.01%, to 49,445. This morning we are slightly higher, but moves are below 0.5% in the GER40, the US 500, the US40, and the USTech 100 (NAS). The Japan 225 is up 1.2% after making up for yesterday’s recovery.
The Germany 40 has retaken the 200 day line to the upside

In corporate news, Amazon and Anthropic have expanded their strategic collaboration, with Amazon potentially investing up to $25 billion; Anthropic is expected to secure up to 5 GW of Amazon capacity and to commit more than $100 billion in spending on AWS technologies over time.

Apple also announced a leadership transition: Tim Cook is set to become Executive Chairman, while John Ternus—so far in charge of Hardware—will take over as CEO, both effective September 1, 2026. Cook will remain in the CEO role through the summer to oversee the handover, and Arthur Levinson is expected to become Lead Independent Director as part of the board reshuffle.

SpaceX is moving ahead with its IPO plans and is conducting analyst meetings in Texas and Tennessee. Meta dropped more than 2% after nine straight sessions of gains.

The USD Index is just below 98, with EURUSD at 1.1775, GBPUSD at 1.3515, and USDJPY at 158.90. Gold is at 4,785 and silver at 78.90, while Bitcoin is at 75,800. Oil is trading at 94.80 in the UK and 87.80 in the US.

The main attention remains on Iran and hopes for the next round of peace talks ahead of the ceasefire’s end tomorrow evening, but progress remains unclear. The two immediate questions are whether the ceasefire will be extended and whether the talks will take place.

We are expecting a decent amount of economic data. The main release is US retail sales at 14:30 (expected 1.4%), while UK employment data (expected 5.2%) and the German ZEW (conditions -70 and sentiment -5) will shed light on the state of Europe.

We are also expecting the confirmation hearing of Kevin Warsh before the Senate at 16:00 CET. His independence from the Trump White House is expected to be a key focus. Warsh is expected to say he is “committed to ensuring that the conduct of monetary policy remains strictly independent,” while economists say his views on the central bank’s quantitative easing program will also be critical, according to Reuters. Heading into the hearing, markets are pricing roughly a 50% chance of a US rate cut this year, and 10-year yields are at 4.24.

The reaction of Apple and Amazon to the announcements will be insightful.

If you hold Tesla, get ready for earnings tomorrow.

Trade Safely.

Ou strats Team wrote a number of strong articles,

Options Brief – Hormuz noise, earnings take over – 20 April 2026

Despite a renewed geopolitical shock in the Strait of Hormuz, markets have so far treated the move as noise rather than a full regime shift. The article argues that options traders should focus less on broad fear and more on what the tape, volatility curve and earnings backdrop are actually saying.

Oil is no longer just an energy story

• Higher oil now affects inflation, rate hopes and far more sectors than energy alone.
• The pain often appears first in transport, travel, chemicals and thin-margin consumer businesses.
• Oil has become a stress test for business quality. It shows which companies can absorb higher costs, protect margins and keep moving, and which ones start to creak as pressure builds.

The FX Trader: A gentle USD consolidation. CAD leading the pack.

The US dollar has rebounded on the latest oil price jump linked to the war in Iran, but the USD bearish case is far from threatened. Still, USDJPY can’t seem to blast out of the tight range of the last many weeks after an attempt to sell off on Friday. Elsewhere, CAD was the strongest currency over the last week, perhaps due to a kind of “goldilocks” backdrop for the currency.

Tuesday, April 21, 2026
Data: UK labor data, U.S. Retail Sales , Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment
Earnings: United Health, GE Aerospace, RTX, 3M, Halliburton, United, Interactive Brokers.

Wednesday, April 22, 2026
Data: U.K. CPI, EU Consumer Confidence
Earnings: Boeing, CME, Tesla, IBM, Texas Instruments

Thursday, April 23, 2026
Data: Global PMI, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
Earnings: Nokia, Blackstone, Dow, American Airlines, American Express, Intel, Newmont

Friday, April 24, 2026
Data: U.K. Retail Sales, Japan CPI, Germany Ifo Business Climate, U.S. University of Michigan
Earnings: P&G

Monday, April 27, 2026
Data: Japan Leading Index