Morning Brew April 17 2026

Good morning

Equities were in a hold-and-pray formation yesterday due to the lack of any truly decisive positive news from the Middle East. Israel agreed to a temporary ceasefire with Lebanon, and U.S. President Donald Trump indicated the U.S. and Iran could meet again over the weekend. There are already accusations that the ceasefire is being violated.

The US indexes closed slightly higher in moderate volume. Pepsi beat expectations and rose 2.3%, and Voyager Technologies may extend a major contract with NASA and gained 9%. Another unusual outlier was Myseum, which gained 130% after it rebranded as Myseum.AI. Abbott, Schwab, and Netflix (after the bell) fell significantly on disappointing outlooks. A total of 18.2 billion shares were traded, and the S&P 500 recorded 20 new all-time highs.

European stocks advanced. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained, boosted by cyclical sectors like autos and construction, as well as technology. Germany's DAX ended Thursday's session 0.36% higher at 24,154.47, buoyed by increasing optimism over a potential end to the war in Iran. The FTSE 100 rallied 0.29% to close at 10,589.99 after UK GDP data showed better-than-expected economic growth in February. Barry Callebaut shares plunged as much as 16% after the Swiss chocolate maker warned of a profit hit and lowered guidance for the year.

US industrial production fell 0.5% m/m in March 2026, the biggest drop since September 2024. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index climbed to 26.7 in April 2026 from 18.1, the highest since January 2025 and far above expectations for 10. Shipments rose to 34.0 and new orders to 33.0, while employment fell to -5.1. Prices paid jumped to 59.3 and prices received to 33.5.

Foreign holdings of US Treasuries climbed by the most in a year in February, hitting a new record high of $9.49 trillion, led by gains in Canadian and Saudi stockpiles.

US 10s are at 4.3%, and the USD index has risen to 98.20 as EURUSD falls below 1.18 to 1.1780, Cable 1.3520, and USDJPY 159.50. Gold and silver have lost some ground since yesterday morning and are at 4,810 and 79.10, respectively. There is news that India is halting purchases due to a customs issue. Bitcoin is near 75,000.

Commodity currencies—so called due to their close correlation to the fortunes of their countries' main export commodities—include two of the best performers among 10 developed market economies: the Norwegian krone and Australian dollar. Both are up over 7% versus the U.S. dollar for the year.

Today is one of those Fridays that are either nice and calm, explosive in one direction, or entirely erratic.

The immediate driver will be the Middle East and, increasingly, the fallout from any supply chain disruptions.

It appears that the general expectation is for short-term pain but a fairly fast resolution of the war in the Middle East, followed by a speedy recovery. That narrative will be tested in the coming weeks, and markets will react accordingly. The reactions may not be as broad as the initial ones, so we are heading into a very interesting time.

Friday, April 17, 2026

Data: EU Trade Balance, Canada Housing Starts
Richmond Fed's Barkin speaks in Charleston, 

Monday, April 20, 2026

Data: China Interest Rate, Canada CPI,

Earnings: Ericsson, State Street,