Morning Brew April 13 2026

Good morning,

Oil prices surged by approximately 7% after diplomatic efforts over the weekend failed and the U.S. moved to block the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, the dollar strengthened, while stocks and bonds declined. Major indexes are down about 1%, the USD Index is up 0.35%, and precious metals are trading lower.

The US 500 is down 0.9% at 6,765, the US Tech 100 is down 1.1% at 24,900, the GER40 dropped 1.2% to 23,500, and the Nikkei stands at 56,533. EURUSD has fallen to 1.1685, GBPUSD to 1.34, and USDJPY to 159.70. Gold is trading 0.7% lower at 4,716, Silver is down 2% to 74.30, and Bitcoin has dropped to 70,800.

US Crude is trading at 104.70, while UK Brent is at 102.20.

Signals from the U.S. regarding discussions and negotiations remain unclear, ranging from threats to optimism:

"No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas," President Trump wrote on social media, adding, "Any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL!" He also expressed his belief that Iran would continue negotiations and described the Islamabad discussions as "very friendly."
He threatened all countries supplying Iran with military goods with tariffs of 50%.

A concerning statement was that he expects fuel prices to remain elevated until the mid-term elections—let's hope his prediction is as reliable as usual.

Charu comments:

• The latest U.S.-Iran talks ended without a deal, but a fragile ceasefire remains in place.
• The breakdown challenges some of the peace dividend that had begun to build in markets, though it has not yet revived the extreme panic seen earlier in the cycle.
• Washington’s response has shifted from diplomacy to maritime pressure, implementing a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz targeting Iranian shipping, rather than an immediate escalation to direct military action.
• This keeps oil prices supported, risk sentiment fragile, and markets highly sensitive to headlines from Hormuz, Washington, Tehran, and Israel.

We are also entering earnings season, with banks kicking off as usual. Today, we expect results from Goldman Sachs. In S&P 500 companies, earnings are projected to rise by 14%, with Technology leading at 40%, while Healthcare is expected to decline by 10%. In Switzerland, Sika begins the cycle tomorrow.

This earnings season has been dubbed "Earnings Before Iran, Tariffs, and Donald's Announcements"—EBITDA.

From a technical point of view, we continue to meander the 200 and 50 day moving averages and it is worth keeping an eye on. Some interesting financial instruments at of near the levels are:  the big three US Indexes, the SMI, the Dax and EURUSD, GBPUSD, the Mag 7.

In Europe, Viktor Orban has suffered a major defeat as the opposition won with an absolute majority. It appears that support from JD Vance and Donald Trump was not enough to help. This election was crucial for the EU, as it ends Hungary's Russia-friendly blockade stance and is likely to strengthen the European Union.

Key factors to watch from here are:

any news from the middle east and impact of the oil price and shortage arising from the straight of Hormuz being blocked.

Earnings and the outlook presented in the earning calls- which impact do CEO`s see from the war in Iran.

There is no top tier economic data this week:

Monday, April 13, 2026

Data: Japan Money Supply, US Existing Home Sales

Earnings: Goldman Sachs, FirstBank

Tuesday, April 14, 2026

Data: China Trade Data,  US PPI

Earnings: Blackrock, Citi, Wellsfargo,

Wednesday, April 15, 2026

Data: Japan Tankan, France CPI, US Import Price,

Earnings: Sika, LVMH  ASML, MorganStanley,, Bank Of America,

Thursday, April 16, 2026

Data: China GDP, Retail Sales, UK GDP, Italy CPI, US Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed, Industrial Production,

Earnings: TSMC, CharlesSchwab, Pepsico, BNY, Netflix, Alcoa,

Friday, April 17, 2026

Data: EU Trade Balance, Canada Housing Starts

Monday, April 20, 2026

Data: China Interest Rate, Canada CPI,