Morning Brew April 1 2025

Good morning,

Welcome to the second quarter of 2025! 

Yesterday we first saw a decent selloff of risk assets but then a decent recovery to positive territory for US Equities. The Dow ended up 1%, the S&P 500 0.55%, only the Nasdaq ended down 0.14%. Medical shares lost due to pressure on vaccinations from the Trump administration, the magnificent 7 were mixed but calm with Apple the strongest winner at less than 2% and Tesla the biggest lower at -1.9%. The Dax is defending the 22.000 after testing the level yesterday, we are now at 22300.

Gold seems unstoppable at 3140 while Silver is lagging at 34.10.

Yields changed little yesterday and FX was also relatively calm bracing for the tariff introduction tomorrow – and details possibly today?

The USD Index is above 104 at 104.13, EURUSD 1.0818, GBPUSD 1.2929 and USDJPY 149.80.

The Whitehouse published at 400-page report on trade barriers yesterday but it was not clear what the significance on the upcoming tariffs will be – clearly the elephant in the room.

Chinese state broadcaster CCTV announced yesterday that China, Japan and South Korea have agreed to jointly respond to US tariffs, Korea called this "somewhat exaggerated".

We are expecting important data today but any details on US trade policy will be the key driver.

Other Headlines:

• The IMF currently is not expecting a recession.
• In Germany coalition talks continue
• Marie Le Pen is banned from political office for 5 years.
• Russia said it was discussing ceasefire for Ukraine, terms with US Representatives.
• J&J failed in a proposed settlement of it`s baby powder law case, having suggested a settlement of USD 10 bio
• Harvard University is at risk of losing $9 billion in federal

Remain cautious as we are approaching what Donald Trump calls “liberation day” fast

Tuesday, April 1, 2025

• UK House Prices
• Swiss Retail Sales
• Eurozone Inflation Rate (March): Preliminary data on price pressures in the EU (11:00 AM CET).
• Canada PMI
• US ISM Manufacturing PMI: A key indicator of economic health in manufacturing (10:00 AM ET).
• ECB President Christine Lagarde and fellow board member Philip Lane speak

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   Wednesday, April 2, 2025

• Germany Retail Sales (February): Reflects consumer demand trends (08:00 AM CET).
• US ADP Employment Change: A preview of labor market conditions ahead of the NFP report (08:15 AM ET).
• US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: Key for energy markets (10:30 AM ET).
• Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell: Addressing U.S. economic conditions and monetary policy at the Economic Club of Chicago (12:30 PM ET).

   

   Thursday, April 3, 2025

• Eurozone Unemployment Rate (February): Labor market update for the EU (11:00 AM CET).
• US Initial Jobless Claims: Weekly labor market data (08:30 AM ET).
• US ISM Services PMI: Insights into the service sector's health (10:00 AM ET).
• Andrew Bailey (BoE Governor): Speaking on financial stability and inflation risks at a London forum.

   

  Friday, April 4, 2025

• Germany Industrial Production (February): A measure of industrial activity in Europe’s largest economy (08:00 AM CET).
• US Non-Farm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate (March): The most closely watched labor market report globally (08:30 AM ET).
• Tiff Macklem (BoC Governor): Discussing trade dynamics and monetary policy implications in Toronto.