Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew 10 August 2021

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Will the CPI decide the taper?


Good Morning,

Markets continue to digest higher US yields, with the US Dollar rising to 93 in the USD Index, 1.1738 against the EUR GBPUSD trades at 1.3845, Gold at 1734 and Silver at 23.60. Gold tested the 1720 support again over night which so far held. If we breach that level, 1680 would be key. , Silver support lies around 23.20 ahead of 22.50/22.00. Bitcoin exceeds 45k and US Crude oil 67.40.

Equities remained fairly calm yesterday and overnight, just slightly off all time highs in most indexes, Dax trades at 15750 in the CFD with the key level at 15800, the US 30 trades just above 35000the US 500 at 4427 and the US Tech 100 at 15125. The Swiss Index posted a new all time high yesterday and is trading near the top.

We saw some shift out of rate sensitive stocks into banks who would profit from a steeper yield curve.

Key event coming up is the US CPI tomorrow expected at 0.5% monthly and 5.3% annually, before that, the German ZEW today at 11, US Labor costs at 14:30 and the German CPI tomorrow will be of interest. The German CPI is expected at 3.8% annually, a number near that level will cause further calls for tapering by the Bundesbank. The US Senate is scheduled to vote on the infrastructure bill at 17:00 CET today.

Headlines:

Global warming is dangerously close to spiraling out of control, according U.N. climate report

Bionteck is values at almost twice as high as Bayer

Softbanks Profit falls 39%

Local Start Date

Local Time

Country/Region

Indicator Name

Period

Reuters Poll

10 Aug 2021

01:50

Japan

Current Account NSA JPY

Jun

779.8B

10 Aug 2021

08:00

Norway

Consumer Price Index MM

Jul

10 Aug 2021

08:00

Norway

Consumer Price Index YY

Jul

2.8%

10 Aug 2021

08:00

Denmark

CPI YY

Jul

10 Aug 2021

11:00

Germany

ZEW Economic Sentiment

Aug

57.0

10 Aug 2021

11:00

Germany

ZEW Current Conditions

Aug

30.0

10 Aug 2021

14:00

Brazil

IPCA Inflation Index MM

Jul

0.93%

10 Aug 2021

China (Mainland)

Total Social Financing

Jul

1,700.00B

10 Aug 2021

China (Mainland)

M2 Money Supply YY

Jul

8.7%

10 Aug 2021

China (Mainland)

New Yuan Loans

Jul

1,200.0B

11 Aug 2021

08:00

Germany

HICP Final YY

Jul

3.1%

11 Aug 2021

10:00

Italy

CPI (EU Norm) Final MM

Jul

-1.1%

11 Aug 2021

10:00

Italy

CPI (EU Norm) Final YY

Jul

0.9%

11 Aug 2021

14:00

Brazil

Retail Sales YY

Jun

9.00%

11 Aug 2021

14:30

United States

CPI MM, SA

Jul

0.5%

12 Aug 2021

01:50

Japan

Corp Goods Price MM

Jul

0.5%

12 Aug 2021

01:50

Japan

Corp Goods Price YY

Jul

5.0%

12 Aug 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

GDP Est 3M/3M

Jun

4.8%

12 Aug 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

GDP Estimate MM

Jun

0.7%

12 Aug 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

GDP Estimate YY

Jun

15.0%

12 Aug 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

Manufacturing Output MM

Jun

0.4%

12 Aug 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

GDP Prelim QQ

Q2

4.8%

12 Aug 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

GDP Prelim YY

Q2

22.1%

12 Aug 2021

13:00

Turkey

CBT Weekly Repo Rate

Aug

19.00%

12 Aug 2021

13:00

Turkey

O/N Lending Rate

Aug

12 Aug 2021

13:00

Turkey

O/N Borrowing Rate

Aug

12 Aug 2021

13:00

Turkey

Late Liquidity Window Rate

Aug

12 Aug 2021

14:30

United States

Initial Jobless Clm

7 Aug, w/e

373k

13 Aug 2021

08:45

France

CPI (EU Norm) Final MM

Jul

0.1%

13 Aug 2021

08:45

France

CPI (EU Norm) Final YY

Jul

1.6%

13 Aug 2021

09:00

Turkey

Current Account Balance

Jun

13 Aug 2021

09:30

Sweden

CPI MM

Jul

0.3%

13 Aug 2021

09:30

Sweden

CPI YY

Jul

1.4%

13 Aug 2021

16:00

United States

U Mich Sentiment Prelim

Aug

81.2

16 Aug 2021

01:50

Japan

GDP QQ

Q2

0.2%

16 Aug 2021

01:50

Japan

GDP QQ Annualised

Q2

0.7%

16 Aug 2021

01:50

Japan

GDP QQ Pvt Consmp Prelim

Q2

-0.1%

16 Aug 2021

01:50

Japan

GDP QQ Capital Expend.

Q2

1.7%

16 Aug 2021

01:50

Japan

GDP QQ External Demand

Q2

-0.1%

16 Aug 2021

04:00

China (Mainland)

Urban Investment (YTD)YY

Jul

16 Aug 2021

04:00

China (Mainland)

Industrial Output YY

Jul

16 Aug 2021

04:00

China (Mainland)

Retail Sales YY

Jul

16 Aug 2021

12:00

Euro Zone

Reserve Assets Total

Jul

(refinitv)

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