Senior Relationship Manager
Good Morning
Risk sentiment is off Fridays Highs as Janet Yellen stated higher Interest Rates would be good for the country, Chinas Imports rise by the fastest pace in 10 Years at a stunning 51%. A Corona Outbreak in Taiwan is putting global prices under pressure and we are expecting a lot of key news: The US Stimulus Negotiations, ECB Rate decision and maybe crucially the US CPI on Thursday
Indexes are about 0.2% lower, Gold and Silver fall to 1886 and 27.60. the USD Index drops to 90.2 after a 90.6 high Friday and 10 Year Rates drop from 1.63 to 1.56. EURUSD is at 1.2160 after a 99 pip range on Friday.
The GER30 failed to break the 15700 in the first attempt.
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures:
CONFM1, FBONM1 will expire today at 09:00 GMT
FBTPM1, FGBLM1, FGBMM1, FGBXM1, FOATM1 will expire 7th June at 15:00 GMT
Expiring CFDs:
10YBTPJUN21, 10YOATJUN21, BOBLJUN21, BUNDJUN21 will expire 4th June at 15:00 GMT
GASOILUKJUN21 will expire 8th Jun at 15:00 GMT
AUDUSDADJUN21, EURCHFRFJUN21, EURGBPRPJUN21, EURJPYRYJUN21, EURUSDECJUN21, GBPUSDBPJUN21 will expire 9th June at 15:00 GMT
Local Start Date | Local Time | Country/Region | Indicator Name | Period | Reuters Poll | Actual | Unit |
7 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | Germany | Industrial Orders MM | Apr | 1.0% | Percent | |
7 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | Norway | Reserve Assets Total | May | NOK | ||
7 Jun 2021 | 08:45 | France | Reserve Assets Total | May | EUR | ||
7 Jun 2021 | 09:00 | Switzerland | Forex Reserves CHF | May | CHF | ||
7 Jun 2021 | 09:30 | United Kingdom | Halifax House Prices MM | May | 1.2% | Percent | |
7 Jun 2021 | China (Mainland) | Exports YY | May | 32.1% | 27.9% | Percent | |
7 Jun 2021 | China (Mainland) | Imports YY | May | 51.5% | 51.1% | Percent | |
7 Jun 2021 | China (Mainland) | Trade Balance USD | May | 50.50B | 45.53B | USD | |
8 Jun 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Current Account NSA JPY | Apr | 1,500.6B | JPY | |
8 Jun 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | GDP Rev QQ Annualised | Q1 | -4.8% | Percent | |
8 Jun 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | GDP Revised QQ | Q1 | -1.2% | Percent | |
8 Jun 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | GDP Cap Ex Rev QQ | Q1 | -1.2% | Percent | |
8 Jun 2021 | 05:00 | New Zealand | Reserve Assets Total | May | NZD | ||
8 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | Germany | Industrial Output MM | Apr | 0.7% | Percent | |
8 Jun 2021 | 11:00 | Germany | ZEW Economic Sentiment | Jun | 85.3 | Net balance | |
8 Jun 2021 | 11:00 | Germany | ZEW Current Conditions | Jun | -28.0 | Net balance | |
8 Jun 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | GDP Revised QQ | Q1 | -0.6% | Percent | |
8 Jun 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | GDP Revised YY | Q1 | -1.8% | Percent | |
8 Jun 2021 | 14:00 | Brazil | Retail Sales YY | Apr | 19.80% | Percent | |
8 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | United States | International Trade $ | Apr | -69.0B | USD | |
8 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | Trade Balance C$ | Apr | -0.80B | CAD | |
9 Jun 2021 | 03:30 | China (Mainland) | PPI YY | May | 8.5% | Percent | |
9 Jun 2021 | 03:30 | China (Mainland) | CPI YY | May | 1.6% | Percent | |
9 Jun 2021 | 14:00 | Brazil | IPCA Inflation Index MM | May | 0.71% | Percent | |
9 Jun 2021 | 16:00 | Canada | BoC Rate Decision | 9 Jun | 0.25% | Percent | |
10 Jun 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Corp Goods Price MM | May | 0.5% | Percent | |
10 Jun 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Corp Goods Price YY | May | 4.5% | Percent | |
10 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | Norway | Consumer Price Index MM | May | Percent | ||
10 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | Norway | Consumer Price Index YY | May | 2.9% | Percent | |
10 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | Denmark | CPI YY | May | Percent | ||
10 Jun 2021 | 09:30 | Sweden | CPI MM | May | Percent | ||
10 Jun 2021 | 09:30 | Sweden | CPI YY | May | 2.0% | Percent | |
10 Jun 2021 | 13:45 | Euro Zone | ECB Refinancing Rate | Jun | 0.00% | Percent | |
10 Jun 2021 | 13:45 | Euro Zone | ECB Deposit Rate | Jun | -0.50% | Percent | |
10 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | United States | CPI MM, SA | May | 0.4% | Percent | |
10 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Initial Jobless Clm | 5 Jun, w/e | 371k | Person | |
10 Jun 2021 | China (Mainland) | Total Social Financing | May | 2,002.30B | CNY | ||
10 Jun 2021 | China (Mainland) | M2 Money Supply YY | May | 8.1% | Percent | ||
10 Jun 2021 | China (Mainland) | New Yuan Loans | May | 1,410.0B | CNY | ||
11 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | GDP Est 3M/3M | Apr | 1.6% | Percent | |
11 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | GDP Estimate MM | Apr | 2.4% | Percent | |
11 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | GDP Estimate YY | Apr | 27.9% | Percent | |
11 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Manufacturing Output MM | Apr | 1.5% | Percent | |
11 Jun 2021 | 16:00 | United States | U Mich Sentiment Prelim | Jun | 84.0 | Index | |
14 Jun 2021 | 09:00 | Turkey | Current Account Balance | Apr | USD |
(Refinitiv)
AI: The good, the bad, and the bubble
While a deep recession may not be iminent thanks to central bank policy, interest rates will have to stay high for longer, and this will be accompanied by volatility risk from the unwinding of bubbles, especially within AI.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
The emergence of advanced AI systems is by far the most surprising event this year, turning everything upside down, while risks and benefits are debated. AI will also become an arms race between the US and China.
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
As China navigates global fragmentation, its cycle of technology application, productivity enhancement, and growth is threatened by US breakthroughs in generative AI, limited computing power, and geopolitical tensions.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
Japan’s expertise in semiconductors and robotic integration could be the foundation of AI dominance. Combining two of this year's themes, Japanese equities and artificial intelligence, brings a wave of opportunities.
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
The AI fever has turned the technology into a darling, pushing crypto further into no-man’s-land. There are striking similarities between AI and crypto, and if these are to come full circle, AI won't be spared for bubbles.
Mads Eberhardt,
Cryptocurrency Analyst
Stocks related to artificial intelligence (AI) have appeared on investors' radars. Expectations are high, but it may be necessary to consider how to get exposure to AI in a diversified way.
Hans Oudshoorn,
Trainer Academy
The USD is on its back foot as markets celebrate an eventual Fed rate peak and steady long US yields. The stakes are even higher for the Japanese yen if longer major sovereign yield curves have to price in economic acceleration.
John J. Hardy,
Head of FX Strategy
While commodities, broadly speaking, have faced some tough months, a partial reversal during June could signal that the asset class is getting back on its feet with energy holding up and precious metals with upside potential.
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
As inflation remains high central banks face hard decisions about whether they should keep hiking interest rates or stop. Meanwhile, the rise of AI creates bubble-like conditions that only make the decision harder.
Althea Spinozzi,
Senior Fixed Income Strategist