Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Everything Bubble
Good Morning
Howard Marks stated in an interview yesterday that we were in “an everything Bubble” and that the Fed should not be concerned with market management. The same day, the Nasdaq and the S&P500 close at record levels on fairly low volume. Over the last 20 days the average traded volume of shares in the US was 9.3 Bio, yesterday only 8.8 exchanged hands. The Stoxx 600 Index also trades at an all time high and the Dax is approaching record levels as well.
Robinhood Markets fell 27.6% ViacomCBS Inc gained 7.1% Allianz posted a 46% rise increase in profits.
The USD Index rises to 92.33, EURUSD falls to 1.1825 GBPUSD trades at 1.3919 and gold and silver 1800 and 25.15. US 10 year yields rose to 1.2369% while the whole German Yield curve is negative. The 30 year is at -0.05%. Bitcoin trades above 40k and Ether rises 10%
Key event will be the US Non-Farm Payrolls expected at 870k along with the unemployment rate at 5.7%. For the Swissi, the Forex reserves of the SNB will be released at 9 CET, last month was 941 billion CHF.
Key driver of the stock market remains asset purchases by central banks, if the NFP Data shows further recovery, it will be difficult to maintain the justification for QE, unless the Delta variant could be constructed as a reason.
Trade safely.
Local Start Date | Local Time | Country/Region | Indicator Name | Period | Reuters Poll | Unit |
6 Aug 2021 | 05:00 | New Zealand | Reserve Assets Total | Jul | NZD | |
6 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | Germany | Industrial Output MM | Jun | 0.5% | Percent |
6 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Halifax House Prices MM | Jul | Percent | |
6 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | Norway | Reserve Assets Total | Jul | NOK | |
6 Aug 2021 | 08:45 | France | Reserve Assets Total | Jul | EUR | |
6 Aug 2021 | 09:00 | Switzerland | Forex Reserves CHF | Jul | CHF | |
6 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Non-Farm Payrolls | Jul | 870k | Person |
6 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Unemployment Rate | Jul | 5.7% | Percent |
6 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Average Earnings YY | Jul | 3.9% | Percent |
6 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | Employment Change | Jul | 150.0k | Person |
6 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | Unemployment Rate | Jul | 7.4% | Percent |
7 Aug 2021 | China (Mainland) | Exports YY | Jul | Percent | ||
7 Aug 2021 | China (Mainland) | Imports YY | Jul | Percent | ||
7 Aug 2021 | China (Mainland) | Trade Balance USD | Jul | USD | ||
9 Aug 2021 | 03:30 | China (Mainland) | PPI YY | Jul | Percent | |
9 Aug 2021 | 03:30 | China (Mainland) | CPI YY | Jul | Percent |
(Refinitiv)
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.