Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Amazon and Robin Hood disappoint - Inflaion in focus
Good Morning
Equities could rise yesterday, the Dow closed up 0.4%, the S&P 0.4% and the Nasdaq 0.1%. Tesla was one of the largest drivers gaining almost 5%. After the bell, Amazon disappointed with revenue and outlook and shares fell as much as 7% in the aftermarket.
Robin Hood disappointed in the IPO, giving up 8%, one of the worst-performing IPOs of companies with a value of more than 10 bio.
Risk came under pressure in the Asian session and Asian shares are suffering the biggest monthly drop March 2020, the Hang Seng loses 10% in July.
Currently the Nasdaq 100 Future is down 1.4%, the S&P500 0.9% and the Dax -0.5.
The USD Index fell to below 92 to currently trade at 91.90, 10 year yields remain subdued at 1.24. Gold and Silver rise to 1828 and 25.55, EURUSD is within reach of the 1.19 at 1.1877, GBPUSD 1.3940 and Bitcoin near the 40000.
Earnings and international CPI and GDP data will be released today, along with a number of 2nd tier earnings.
After US Inflation at 6.1% and German consumer prices up more than 3%- levels not seen since the 1980s and 2008 , the EU HICPat 11 will be of particular interest. Christine Lagarde has stated the ECB would accept an overshoot in inflation but discord can be expected. The Bundesbank will not be happy to accept broader inflation above 2%.
Earnings today: BNP Paribas SA Hitachi Ltd Takeda Pharmaceutical Co, KDDI, Linde , Aon, Caterpillar, Siemens Healthineers, Charter Communications, Illinois Tool Works Colgate-Palmolive, Exxon Mobil, IDEXX Laboratories , Abbvie Chevron Corp, Johnson Controls Enbridge, Procter & Gamble, Kweichow Moutai.
Local Date | Local Time | Country/Region | Indicator Name | Period | Reuters Poll |
30 Jul 2021 | 01:30 | Japan | Jobs/Applicants Ratio | Jun | 1.10 |
30 Jul 2021 | 01:30 | Japan | Unemployment Rate | Jun | 3.0% |
30 Jul 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Industrial O/P Prelim MM SA | Jun | 5.0% |
30 Jul 2021 | 07:30 | France | GDP Preliminary QQ | Q2 | 0.8% |
30 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | Germany | GDP Flash QQ SA | Q2 | 2.1% |
30 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | Germany | GDP Flash YY NSA | Q2 | 10.0% |
30 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | Denmark | Unemployment Rate | Jun | |
30 Jul 2021 | 08:45 | France | CPI (EU Norm) Prelim YY | Jul | |
30 Jul 2021 | 09:00 | Spain | Estimated GDP QQ | Q2 | 2.1% |
30 Jul 2021 | 09:00 | Switzerland | KOF Indicator | Jul | |
30 Jul 2021 | 09:00 | Switzerland | Official Reserves Assets CHF | Jun | |
30 Jul 2021 | 09:00 | Austria | GDP Growth QQ Prelim | Q2 | |
30 Jul 2021 | 10:00 | Italy | GDP Prelim QQ | Q2 | 1.3% |
30 Jul 2021 | 10:00 | Italy | GDP Prelim YY | Q2 | 15.8% |
30 Jul 2021 | 11:00 | Italy | CPI (EU Norm) Prelim MM | Jul | |
30 Jul 2021 | 11:00 | Italy | CPI (EU Norm) Prelim YY | Jul | |
30 Jul 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | HICP Flash YY | Jul | 2.0% |
30 Jul 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | HICP-X F&E Flash YY | Jul | 0.9% |
30 Jul 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | GDP Flash Prelim YY | Q2 | 13.2% |
30 Jul 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | GDP Flash Prelim QQ | Q2 | 1.5% |
30 Jul 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | Unemployment Rate | Jun | 7.9% |
30 Jul 2021 | 12:00 | Italy | CPI (EU Norm) Prelim MM | Jul | |
30 Jul 2021 | 12:00 | Italy | CPI (EU Norm) Prelim YY | Jul | |
30 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Consumption, Adjusted MM | Jun | 0.5% |
30 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | GDP MM | May | |
30 Jul 2021 | 16:00 | United States | U Mich Sentiment Final | Jul | 81.3 |
Refinitiv
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
