Macro Dragon: Welcome to WK # 32... RBA, Final PMIs, ISMs+ NFP, Biden's VP
Summary: Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.
Macro Dragon: Welcome to WK # 32...
Top of Mind…
- Happy Monday Folks & Welcome to WK # 32…
- Hope everyone had yet another fabulous wkd & for those of you already kicking your shoes off for some holidays in the Northern Hemisphere summer – enjoy!
- These sides in SG, some of us are arbing the long holiday wkd & counting down to National day on Aug 9th, which will extend to Mon Aug 10th being a public holiday… the Nation will turn 55yr young, which is downright remarkable when you consider how much has been achieved in that period. So to the locals, get your flags out & ready you lion roars
- What kind of week are you trying to have?
- Economics: Really all about final PMIs readings across the board, as well as US monthly key ISMs, NFPs & unemployment rate. Key continued focus will be on the latest fiscal bill in Congress, which had actually passed the house by the Dem in May for c. $3 trn & now is being pushed back by the Reps for a $1trn – in the meantime things have gotten worse over the last few wks in the US in regards to C19 (call it resurgence, 2nd wave – yet its also mostly just the first wave, the US never fully shut down across the board).
- The fact that you have places like Melbourne Australia (C. 20% of Aus GDP * in 2018-2019 contributed to c. 40% of GDP – which has also initially done incredibly well), which had to lock-down a second time & are increasing the lockdown measures – curfews, windows of time to exercise, shop, etc… Potentially suggests that C19 is in the US for a while longer, potentially well into next summer (& Winter will be the “resurgence” period just given the math around weather).
- Politics: It is expected that Biden – a.k.a. best “Basement” Strategy on the planet – will finally announce his VP which is to be a woman (Had already committed to this) & likely non-Caucasian, which is the main ethnicity in the US.
- No doubt Trump & his political hit squad are licking their chops at the chance of extracting some flesh from Team Biden through the nominated VP – its been tough to pin Biden, i.e. how do you pin someone who hangs out in the basement whilst you are shuffling from C19 gaff to C19 gaff.
- Tech Senate Grilling: In three words: Gaseous Virtue Signaling. In two words, A Joke. In one word, Noise.
- That’s all you get when you round up the CEOs of the four biggest tech names [Facebook, Google, Apple & Amazon] – with very different businesses, as well as very different campaigns & ways of expressing their monopoly power – you are not really looking at anything in a coherent, focused & strategic process.
- You are just beating your ego & franchise drum, showing your constituents how seriously you are taking big tech. It’s a real joke to be honest. If they were seriously interested in anti-trust properties, it would only be one company called up & it would be the one that would be easiest to nail on the wall – a.k.a. Zuck’s Book.
- Its amazing when you take a step back & think about it, we are sub 4m to the next US presidential election – can we really say that things have materially change in how this social behemoth operates?
- Lastly as per last wk on FB, keep in mind the FB’s SOTP > FB Value, plus it is likely a massive buy the day Zuck & Lean-In finally wake up & realize the taint in the room is coming from them.
- Earnings: Earnings continue, last wk we got the big guns out with Amazon, FB & Apple having their earnings releases embraced, whilst Google got the Bills Cosby shoulder.
- While the big guns & “hot” names may have already reported for most folks, there are still a few gems out there – the alternate protein theme pure listed play Beyond Meat will be reported on 8 Aug after the market.
- Central Banks: Quite a number of rate decisions from Australia, Thailand, Brazil, United Kingdom & India.
- Fed Speak: Quite a few on this wk including Bullard, Barkin, Evans, Mester & Kaplan.
- Holidays: SG is out on Mon Aug 10th, due to National holiday falling Sun 9th Aug. Happy Birthday Singapore, you are 55yrs young. CA is out today Mon 3rd Aug.
Start-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.
This is the wayKVP
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.