Macro Dragon WK 10: New Month + New Horizons = Pure Bliss Macro Dragon WK 10: New Month + New Horizons = Pure Bliss Macro Dragon WK 10: New Month + New Horizons = Pure Bliss

Macro Dragon WK 10: New Month + New Horizons = Pure Bliss

Macro 8 minutes to read
Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.

(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

Macro Dragon: New Month + New Horizons = Pure Bliss 


Top of Mind…

  • TGIM & welcome to WK #10

  • Amazing discovery over the wkd in the Dragon household, would encourage everyone to go through the following exercise.

  • Step 1. Sit somewhere comfy & where you will not be disturbed, be it with a nice cup of early grey tea or hot cocoa, or maybe even a chilled rozeeeeee or clean whisky

  • Step 2. Slip on some noise cancelling headphones, get the track ready & close your eyes.

  • Step 3. Press play & just let go….

  • Your welcome :)…

  • This. This. Is. Global Macro Investing. This. Is. Life… with valleys, peaks, wins, losses, victories, defeats, joy, sadness, playfulness, despair… & the same constants… process, the love for one’s craft & the continued work in progress that we all are.

  • Here is to a beautiful & limitless upside Mar, lets have an epic close for 1Q21

  • Market focus this wk in addition to the classic new month staples - of final PMIs, US NFP / ISMS, month start flows - , will be on the latest US $1.9 trn Fiscal Package (c. +9% of US pre-covid GDP) finally being passed in the House. It is now about the Senate (which has always been the case) & whilst the Dems control the senate with Kamala Harris as a potential tie breaker, its worth noting two democrats in the House opposed the bill (Golden from Maine, Schrader from Oregon) & there were exactly zero republicans that voted for it.

  • Worth noting part of the package (Which has to clear the Senate, then potentially go back to the House – as to clear the Senate with a simple majority, looks like there need to be a tweak in the bill) is the +$1,400 stimulus direct checks to Americans. Will be interesting to see how much of that ends up in the WSB/Robihood crowd.

  • From the Dragon’s standpoint the key thing to watch is the inception of the move towards YCC. Remain highly convicted of the view it’s a question of WHEN not IF… & bear in mind the convexity of bond prices changes as yields go higher, its not like equities – momentum as a strategy is not symmetrical across life, nor is it symmetrical across assets.

  • So watch for a coordinated narrative from the likes of Clarida & Powell when they are getting ready to do implement YCC. As Piznair Capital’s CIO Gez said, “its not going to be digital, they will flag it first”.

  • So question is that US 10s at 2.0% from these 1.41% or 30s at 2.50%/2.75% from these 2.18%? Actually the accelerated move up is the best scenario from get a quicker & clearer response from the Fed. A more gradual grind up, would introduce a lot more noise over signals.

  • Lastly, regular readers of the Dragon will know of our ultra-high conviction on energy both for oil & equity since one wk before the US elections in 2020. And damn, have we been phenomenally on point there, with some grateful luck on the thesis, given the freeze across the US.

  • There is the direction of an investment thesis playing out & there is the magnitude of that move – still remain a high conviction bull on energy, as that a lot of these energy names will still likely pop +50% to +100% over next 12-18m (XLE $48.15, XOM $54.37, BP 291.75, WPS A$24.77) & are well below their Jan 2020 pre-covid lvl. Remember some of these names closed last year down -40% & they are in one of the sectors were valuation are cheap, plus they are also very much in the value bucket & a leverage play on the world re-opening out, vaccines being rolled out, etc.

  • Yet tactically worth noting how quickly we have moved in a very short amount of time. We are kicking off this Asia morning with WTI firmly above $60 at $62.65 +1.8% & Brent $65.60 +1.8% & when Texas eventually defrosts, winter in the Northern Hemisphere disperses, we are likely going to see a pretty brutal reversal on oil.

Rest of the Week & Other Reflections

  • Yes China PMIs came in worse than expected this morning, all noise as 1Q data always has the Lunar New year effects… generally an acceleration of activity into it & as a consequence of that, a deceleration post that.

  • Powell set to speak again this wk – did an interesting job of playing relaxed on the need to move rates up last wk… good Jay, good Jay – on Thu, so again… hints of YCC? Likely will depend where 10s & 30s are… if we are at 2.0% & 2.75%... he will talk YCC.

  • Australia GDP on Wed could be a big mover for currency traders on Aussie crosses.

  • UK should set its budget release this Wed.

  • CBs: Australia 0.10% e/p (remember RBA recently bought an unscheduled few yards of points to keep their YCC in place) & Malaysia 1.75% e/p.

  • ECB”s Lagarde set to speak on Tue, with RBNZ’s Orr on Thu

  • Hols: JP out on Tues.  

New Dragon Interview– Global Macro & Nature Conservationist Geo Chen

Our third Dragon Interview takes us to an outlier’s outlier, with Global Macro Trader & Nature Conservationist Geo Chen.

We had the pleasure of sitting down & speaking with Geo who is:

Board Member @ The Rain Forest Trust

Co-Founder of the Huang Chen Foundation  [Nature Conservation Focus]


Whilst the interview was filmed at the tail-end of Nov 2020, there is something here for everyone to take something away, including bigger picture thoughts on 2021, broader implications of the macro regime that we are in, as well as overall framework, allocation & investment process.

Geo has been running his own capital across both liquid & illiquid strategies since 2017, chalking up world class returns in the process, which more importantly fuels Geo & his family’s passion & calling, for Nature Conservation.

What is impressive outside of the large returns over the period, is that Geo somehow does it all – from trading to investing, to internal capital allocations as well as external allocations across the entire asset class & strategies spectrum. I.e. its tough enough to consistently do well in one area, lets alone across the board.

We cover his come up story, his framework + process & approach, his passion & the importance of the Nature Conservation. Lastly we close with Top of Mind Thoughts & views for 2021 & the general global macro regime that we are in.

We hope you enjoy the interview, as much as we did putting it together. And if there is something that you take away from this, be it inspiration, enhanced framework, investment thesis that resonates, left you thinking, etc…  

Do consider making a donation to the Rain Forest Trust – which buys up rainforest land around the world & maintains them within an ecosystem of local residents.

From a markets perspective these are some of the areas we touched on:

  • How Geo fared in 2020, given the massive bullishness in Jan, crazy sell-off in Feb & Mar, then once again bullish recovery in Apr & May

  • Inflationary regime & the huge fiscal forces that we are seeing

  • Precious Metals & US duration

  • Bitcoin & Crypto

  • Energy

We hope you enjoyed this Dragon Interview, as much as we enjoyed putting it together

Previous Dragon Interviews


Start-to-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity | Process > Outcome | Sizing > Position.

This is the way 


Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
Full disclaimer (
Full disclaimer (

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38

Contact Saxo

Select region


All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law. 

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.