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Key Stories from the past week: 2025, start your engines….
The first full working week of the year has been characterized by rising yields globally as the US economy continues to perform strongly and rate cuts are put on the back burner. The bond selloff was particularly pronounced in the UK pressuring the British exchequer as the cost of borrowing increases. Furthermore, demand for safe haven assets and US tariff threats saw precious metals rise, while comments from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang sparked a massive sell-off in Quantum Computer related stocks. More below on this week’s key stories.
UK Bond Turmoil
UK Gilt yields rose sharply all along the curve, with the 10-year benchmark climbing to 4.84% by Friday. Earlier in the week the 30-year yield hit 5.35%, the highest level since 1998. The moves risk stagflation for the country as the government tries to stick to its fiscal rules on tax and spending. GBP suffered a broad drubbing, with GBPUSD hitting a new low at 1.2267, the important EURGBP cross for sterling traded above 0.8375, with the next focus on the 0.8400-0.8450 zone.
FX Update: UK looks at stagflation
Quantum Crash: Quantum computing shares tumble on uncertain outlook
Several stocks in the quantum computing industry fell sharply on Wednesday, after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang claimed it would likely be 20 years before very useful quantum computers are seen. While having seen significant gains in Q4 2024, Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum & Quantum Computing Inc all saw about 40% loss in share price as the nearer-term outlook for the industry’s technology was put into question. At Saxo, trading activity for the above companies at least doubled on Wednesday with a roughly even mixture of selling & buying.
Quantum Computing Stocks Are Having a Rough Week
Novo Nordisk
Novo's stock fell nearly 30% in the fourth quarter due to disappointing clinical-trial data, concerns about its obesity pill, and slower supply capacity for Ozempic and Wegovy. Despite this, analysts still rate the stock as a "Buy" with a 12-month average price target of 840 DKK. They expect sales growth slightly above 20% for 2025, which could help offset the impact of the $11 billion acquisition of Catalent. Novo plans further studies for its weight-loss drug CagriSema, with results expected in the first half of 2025. Novo Nordisk has been one of the most traded equities so far this year in Saxo.
Novo Nordisk Faces 5 Key Questions, Says Analyst
Metals
Ten days into 2025, the commodities sector has experienced unexpected gains, with the Bloomberg Commodity Index rising over 3% despite challenges like a strong dollar and potential trade wars. Gains were observed in all sectors except grains. Gold continued its rally, reaching a one-month high, while silver, copper, and platinum also performed well, driven by both industrial and investor demand. Part of the explanation for these behaviours lies in year-end positioning; copper and platinum futures positions flipped to net short in the final week of 2024. The unwinding of these trades has supported the current market moves. Gold was headed for a third weekly gain of roughly 2% as uncertainty around future U.S. policy under President-elect Donald Trump boosted safe-haven demand, especially with the latest comments from Trump on the Panama Canal, Greenland, and Canada. At Saxo, we observed clients generally remaining long on gold, which has increased by approximately 1.2% week on week.
Commodities Weekly: Strong start to 2025
As we enter the final week before US-president elect Donald Trump’s inauguration, markets will continue to be sensitive to the potential impact of new government policies. We will get fresh inflation data in the form of Dec CPIs from US, France, and UK (Weds), Germany (Thurs), Eurozone (Fri). China Q4 GDP is released late on Thursday. German ZEW economic sentiment will also be watched for on Tuesday. And FOMC members are due to speak throughout the week which will provide details of current FED thinking. And finally, Q4 earnings season will begin on Wednesday with results from JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Blackrock and Citigroup.