Global Market Quick Take: Europe – September 4, 2023 Global Market Quick Take: Europe – September 4, 2023 Global Market Quick Take: Europe – September 4, 2023

Global Market Quick Take: Europe – September 4, 2023

Macro 3 minutes to read
Saxo Strategy Team

Summary:  US and European equity futures trade steady after rallying on Friday after economic data suggested that US interest rates could be peaking out. China’s latest property stimulus measures saw a strong Asian session support commodities from crude and copper to iron ore while gold trades near $1950 on peak rate speculation. US Labor Day holiday today.

The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.

Equities: Our view is still cautious with overweight on defensive sectors against cyclical sectors. Hang Seng futures are up 3% as investors are increasingly positive on the economic reforms enacted last week around the mortgage market. This week’s focus is on whether Chinese equities will continue to rally and whether energy markets will remain strong. We are also focusing on green transformation stocks given last week’s horrible performance.

FX: Dollar regained strength on Friday to end the week for a 7th consecutive gain, while CNH was also up in the week. Losses were led by sterling, with GBPUSD sliding below 1.26 on comments from BoE Chief Economist Pill who talked about holding rates as an option. Poor GDP and PMI reports saw USDCAD jumping higher to 1.36 from lows of 1.3490. EURUSD dipped below 1.08 despite some hawkish ECB remarks, and AUDUSD stays below 0.65 ahead of RBA meeting tomorrow.

Commodities: Crude oil trades at or near fresh year to date peaks on expectations OPEC+ will keep supply tight while the demand outlook has received a boost from Chinas latest support measures. Focus this week on whether Brent’s current momentum can carry it above $90. Gold remains supported by US peak rate speculation but still needs to clear $1950 while copper trades near a four-week high.

Fixed-income: A week-long rally in bonds, especially at the front of the curve was halted on Friday following mixed economic data signals. On the week the 2-year yield dropped 20 bp while the 10-year was down 6 bp. US cash markets are closed today.

Volatility: As the IPO of Softbank Group's British chip designer Arm is rapidly approaching, Intel is rumoured to be one of the major investors for the IPO. The last few days options volume in Intel has been more than 3 times higher than the days/weeks before, with a clear preference for call options (277,201 calls compared to 90,911 puts in the last trading day), suggesting that the market is positive for Intel. Meanwhile the VIX (13.09) had its sixth consecutive downward day, close to its low of the year (12.73).

Macro: US nonfarm payrolls came in above expectations at 187k in August, although data for last couple of months was revised lower by -110k. The unemployment rate edged up to 3.8% from 3.5% in July (with labor force participation picking up) and wage growth moderated. Report further boosted soft-landing hopes, prompting markets to further reduce the possibility of another Fed rate hike. The ISM Manufacturing PMI data rose above expectations to 47.6 (exp. 47.0) from 46.4, while price paid increased. Fed's Mester (non-voter) acknowledged that employment growth has slowed, but at 3.8% she said the jobless rate is still low while inflation remains too high.

In the news: Property Stocks Lead China Rally as Stimulus Measures Lift Mood Bloomberg,

Technical analysis: S&P 500 is rejected at resistance at 4,527, expect set back, support at 4,340. Gold rejected at the 1,947 resistance level. Brent Crude oil is above key resistance with daily and weekly bullish trend. US 10-year yields rebound, and likely to resume uptrend.

Macro events: US and Canada Labor Day Holiday

Earnings events: Partner Group (0500 GMT) est. EPS 19.65 vs 17.39 a year ago.

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
Full disclaimer (
Full disclaimer (

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38

Contact Saxo

Select region


All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law.

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.