Global Market Quick Take: Europe – September 28 2023 Global Market Quick Take: Europe – September 28 2023 Global Market Quick Take: Europe – September 28 2023

Global Market Quick Take: Europe – September 28 2023

Macro 3 minutes to read
Saxo Strategy Team

Summary:  Rising crude oil prices, driving up bond yields and the dollar, leading to a general loss of risk appetite across markets, were the main drivers again on Wednesday. WTI touched $95 following another significant US stock draw, and the inflation implication helped drive the yield on 10-year Treasuries above 4.6%, a fresh 2007 high, while the euro slumped below EUR 1.05. The S&P 500 ended the day close to unchanged, while the MSCI World declined for a ninth day, its longest losing streak in years.


The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.

Equities: Shares in Asia fell overnight as investors responded to an ongoing rally in global oil prices supporting the higher-for-longer narrative, which has driven 10-year US Treasury yields to a 2007 high near 4.6%. Wall Street meanwhile ended flat on Wednesday following a late-session recovery while the MSCI World index recorded its longest losing streak in more than ten years.

FX: Dollar range-bound in Asia after further yield-driven gains in the US session brought the DXY index to fresh YTD highs. Weakest on the G-10 FX board was AUD despite a higher inflation print yesterday boosting RBA’s rate hike bets and support of authorities for the yuan. AUDUSD dipped below 0.6340 but back at 0.6380 now. NZDUSD tested the 0.59 handle but reversed back to 0.5950. EURUSD broke below 1.05 but so far holding above the January low at 1.0484, a key level ahead of 1.04, while GBPUSD touched at 1.2130 low. USDJPY printed fresh highs of 149.71 but was back below 149.50 amid intervention risks.

Commodities: Crude oil prices got another push from shrinking inventory data, and fresh new YTD highs were seen with WTI touching $95 and Brent moving closer to $100. Inventories at Cushing Oklahoma – the biggest crude hub in the US – dropped just below 22 million barrels, close to operational minimums and lowest since the seasonal lows of 2014. Gold slipped below $1885 support amid ongoing pressures from rising yields and the strong dollar.

Fixed Income: The Federal Reserve’s higher-for-longer message reverberates though higher long-term US Treasury yields. Unless there is a sign that the job market is weakening significantly, or that the economy is slowing down quickly, long-term yields will continue to soar. With 10-year yields breaking above 4.5% and selling pressure continuing to mount through an increase in coupon supply, quantitative tightening and less foreign investors demand, it’s not unlikely to see yields to continue to rise towards 5% until something breaks. Yesterday’s 5-year notes auction received solid demand while offering the highest auction yield for that tenor since 2007. Yet, robust demand at yesterday’s auction failed to tame selling sentiment in the bond market as rates continued to rise after together with oil and the US dollar. Our attention turns to today’s 7-year notes auction, a tenor normally not liked by investors, which might add to the selling pressure. Overall, we continue to favour short-term maturities and quality.

Volatility: The CBOE Volatility Index fell 0.7 to 18.22% on Wednesday after the underlying S&P 500 index managed an unchanged close following earlier weakness

Macro: Fed voter Kashkari, a dove-turned-hawk, was on the wires again and was open to the possibility of more than one additional rate hike. He said that the FOMC may do less if a shutdown or prolonged UAW strike slows the economy, but "there is that risk" of more increases should tightening not have the intended effect.  Euro-area credit data showed further evidence of interest rates biting, with borrowing by companies and lending to households hitting the slowest pace in eight years. Australia’s August CPI rose to 5.2% y/y from 4.9%, as expected. Trimmed mean was unchanged, showing inflation remains sticky beyond the impacts of a soft base and high gasoline prices on the headline. RBA real rates remain negative, and the inflation print raises expectations of another rate hike, but the quarterly inflation print due in end-October may be awaited.

In the news: US crude stockpiles fall as Cushing continues to drain (Reuters), Micron projected a fiscal first-quarter loss of as much as $1.14 a share, excluding some items. Analysts had estimated a 96-cent loss (Bloomberg). McCarthy still lacks votes for GOP stopgap, increasing odds of a shutdown (Politico), Meta launches AI chatbots for Instagram, Facebook and WhatsApp (FT), China Puts Evergrande’s Billionaire Founder Under Police Control (Bloomberg), Treasury ‘Term Premium’ Gauge Positive for First Time Since 2021 (Bloomberg).

Technical analysis: S&P 500 downtrend support at 4,200. Nasdaq 100 support at 14,254. DAX downtrend support at 14,933. EURUSD downtrend at 1.05 support, expect rebound. GBPUSD below support at 1.2175, oversold, next support 1.2012. USDJPY uptrend stretched but could reach 150. Gold testing support at 1,870. Crude oil in uptrends Brent resist at 99.45, WTI above 93.74 resist. US 10-year T-yields uptrend could reach 4.70

Macro events:  Euro-area consumer confidence (0900 GMT), German CPI (Sep) exp 4.6% vs 6.1% prior, US GDP (2Q) exp 2.2% vs 2.1% prior, US Initial Jobless Claims 215k vs 201k prior, US Pending Home Sales exp –1% MoM vs 0.9% prior, EIA’s Weekly Natural Gas Storage Change Report (1430 GMT)

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38
CH-8058
Zürich-Flughafen
Switzerland

Contact Saxo

Select region

Switzerland
Switzerland

All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law. 

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.